213 Miles From Shea

For the second time this week, we look at a non-roster invite who was a non-roster invite last year as well: Corey Taylor. The now 25 year old was drafted by the Mets in the 7th round of the 2015 draft out of Texas Tech.

From last year’s preview of Corey Taylor:

However, and stop me if you heard this before for non-roster invites, his numbers have been impressive in the minors and forced the issue that we need to talk about him. In his first season in Brooklyn he tossed 18.0 innings over 18 games with a 1.50 ERA with 16 K’s and a 1.000 WHIP. Pretty good.

This is still the case for Taylor. His numbers returned to Earth last year but he went from working in St. Lucie to putting a whole season in Binghamton. In 2015, Taylor posted a 1.50 ERA over 18.0 innings in Brooklyn. Then in 2015 he posted 1.87 ERA over 53.0 innings in St. Lucie. At the end of the season he posted an impressive 1.93 ERA in 14.0 innings in the Fall League.

Last year in Binghamton he posted a 3.61 ERA, 1.332 WHIP in 62.1 innings. Similar to Conlon, when your stuff isn’t overpowering, your numbers will jump in Double A. With a full season of pitching to better players who were a tick older than him (when he dominated in Brooklyn, he was almost a year older than the average player), I’m curious to see how he responds this Spring. He and Conlon also have a lot more competition of relievers that throw much higher coming in from all of the trades at the end of the season. You can never have too many arms, but due to Corey being a right handed thrower and the amount of flamethrowers in the system now, I find it unlikely that he makes it to the 40 man before September.

Drew Smith is a right handed pitcher with a non-roster invite to Mets camp this year. He was drafted in the 3rd round by the Tigers in the 2015 draft. The Rays acquired Smith from the Tigers in late April last year as the Player To Be Named Later in the Mikie Mahtook trade. Drew Smith made his way to the Mets in the Lucas Duda trade. He was the Rays #30 prospect.

When the Mets traded Duda, the general feeling on #MetsTwitter was that Drew Smith wasn’t enough in a return. Drew Smith was apparently requested by several teams at the trade deadline last year according to Joel Sherman who in the same report noted that Smith had a 98 mph fastball.

Source says Drew Smith, going to Mets for Duda, has “really good arm,” throws mid-to-upper 90s. Teams wanted him despite rank in TB Top 30.

— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) July 27, 2017

So now Drew Smith, with late game potential, is at Mets camp. Over three seasons he has posted a 1.80 ERA with a 0.952 WHIP in 139.2 innings in the Minors. Last season he posted a 1.65 ERA with a 0.900 WHIP over 60.0 innings. This was across AAA Durham, AA Montgomery, A+ Lakeland, A+ Charlotte. By the time he got to the Mets, they put him on the Binghamton roster but he didn’t pitch for them.

I’m excited to see Drew Smith’s stuff develop this season for the Mets. He is part of this glut of “C+” level relievers the Mets have all over their farm system. The goal is to get a few of them to blossom. Maybe it will be Smith?

With the departure of Josh Smoker, Matt Purke’s depth position just shot up. Blevins is the only southpaw int he Mets pen so Purke won’t have to do as much this spring to possibly break into the 40 man roster before the end of camp.

Matt Purke was drafted by the Nationals in 2011 in the 3rd round and released in 2014 and then signed again with the Nationals 4 days later. The following season he signed with the White Sox where he broke into the majors in 2016. In limited innings (18.0 over 12 games) posting a 5.50 ERA with a 3.48 FIP and 1.778 WHIP. Last year he posted a 3.48 ERA over 65.2 innings with the White Sox Triple A team.

Purke really made his name long before any of this. He was originally drafted in 2009 in the first round and went to TCU instead where he posted a 3.02 ERA over 116 innings with a 142/34 K/BB. His stock slipped by the time he was drafted by the Nationals due to injuries. He has already had Tommy John.

According to this scouting report from Minor League Ball: his fastball still sits int he low 90s, has a slider and split finger he uses. The last thing the Mets need is another pitcher with injuries woes, but the Mets are going to need another left handed pitcher. I see Purke right now as a possible lightning in a bottle situation. Maybe this is the year that he finally puts his injuries behind him and the stuff he has always had comes through.

The Mets gave a major league invite for a second straight season to P.J. Conlon, the pitcher out Ireland with a sense of humor:

You’re thinking of my change up…my fastball touches 20 mph sometimes. https://t.co/Jhk9Mkt4Bs

— PJ Conlon (@pjconlon29) February 17, 2018

Anyway, PJ turned heads in the 2016 season putting up ridiculous numbers. We previewed him last year where we concluded:

I couldn’t read his profiles and not think of Tim Kurkjian’s new book I’m Fascinated By Sacrifice Flies where he spends time talking about the abundance of power throwing lefties in the league now. You used to have just a handful as recently as Billy Wagner’s time, but now they’re all over the league. This makes Conlon an old school style lefty pitcher. That being said, the local Belfast paper still posted a video of him hitting 90-mph as if it was something amazing. Which it is. As baseball fans in America, we have gotten used to the idea of 90-mph as practically slow in the minors when this is a human feat of strength to get that.

Our feelings about Conlon are the same as they were a year ago, even those his numbers returned to Earth this past season. Last year he posted a 3.38 ERA and a 1.235 WHIP. His career ERA is 2.35 and his career WHIP 1.075. As he goes farther through the farm system, not overpowering stuff catches up but he’s still getting hitters out and the Mets need lefties. He doesn’t project as the now typical Left Handed specialist throwing fire but with the Mets system the way that it is, and barring a minor league signing of another lefty, he will probably be knocking on the door to Queens at some point this season.

The Mets simultaneously had a good and bad off-season. The Mets came into the off-season with several needs: 1-2 relievers, starting pitching depth, a center fielder and either a 2nd or 3rd basemen.

The Mets signed:

• Anthony Swarzak – Right Handed Reliever
• Jay Bruce – Corner Outfielder
• Adrián Gonzalez – First Basemen
• Jose Reyes – Middle Infielder
• Todd Frazier – Third Basemen
• Jason Vargas – Starting Pitcher

So the Mets really accomplished everything on their check list. The main gripes that fans, and myself, have had with with the off-season, even with how active the Mets have been, especially compared to other clubs, is:

• Before the Mets signed Frazier and Vargas, it felt like the Mets were assembling the same roster from the previous seasons.
• The Mets oft optioned for the “sorta fix” rather than the actual fix. For example – Jay Bruce is a nice signing. Cain would have been the truer fit to the need.
• The Mets spent a lot of money, but went with the cheap option multiple times, especially highlighted with not going for Cain or Darvish. Will the saving of money be worth not being guaranteed the wins.

In the end, Mets fans can claim both a good and bad off-season, as they have already been doing on twitter, claiming the narrative that matches their opinion about the Mets before the start of the off-season.

The Mets are cheap! They only got players because the market came to them and got the lower tier players at every opportunity (this matches the ideas that owners do not spend money and ignores the amount guaranteed given out).

The Mets only sign their own players! Bruce and Reyes again! (this ignores the signings of multiple non-Mets).

The Mets actually filled their gaps! Why are you complaining? (this ignores that the Mets still have a glaring LHP hole in the bullpen that must be addressed or Blevins will fall apart by July).

They addressed their needs. It’s annoying that they still went with lower tier players in the largest market in the United States. It’s great they signed player to team friendly deals but it’s annoying that they lean heavily on former Mets. The Mets have increased their depth! What is the quality of the depth? The Mets simultaneously had a good and bad off season.

I love watching baseball. I love food.

I love deli sandwiches.

I don’t know why I didn’t go to Mama’s of Corona’s until 2017. That was a big mistake on my part. Huge mistake. I would say it was the largest mistake I’ve made as a Mets fan but being a Mets fan I know I’ll make another one in at least a month. So goes the nature of being a Mets fan.

Look at all the mozzarella. So much! and the meat! And that perfect bread!

Part 30 of 30 – Noah Syndergaard. The final entry in our projections review last year will also be one that doesn’t quite make sense to do since he was lost due to injury in late April.

2017 Review:
1-2, 7 G, 30.1 IP, 2.97 ERA, 3 BB, 34 K, 1.055 WHIP

Basically this is an exercise in does the ERA and WHIP the projections computers thought Syndergaard would have match 7 starts he made, two of which were 1.0 innings at the end of the season. The answer is, yeah? His ERA was a 20 points higher, his WHIP was three points lower. His work was 130 innings down.

The Mets need Syndergaard to have a chance in 2018. I am curious to see how the projection programs handle his 2017 injury for his 2018 numbers.

Only two more projection reviews in this almost month long journey! Today we’ll look at Jacob deGrom, who will be the first pitcher in a while in this series whose projections probably make sense to look at.

2017 Stats:
15-10, 31 G, 201.1 IP, 3.53 ERA, 59 BB, 239 K, 1.187 WHIP

Jacob crossed 190 innings for the second time in his career and cruised through the 200 K mark for the second time of his career. The models had deGrom with a slight regression off the 2016 numbers, but deGrom slid more than that. He still was the best starter the Mets had last year although some projections, like Baseball America, were way off.

I was dismayed last year when I read the Baseball Prospectus projection. It’s the one I trust the most and it was the one that had deGrom struggling the most. It also was the closest to correct for the starter.

Hey. Remember when we did a projection review for Matt Harvey yesterday? And he wasn’t even close? Well get ready for part two! Steven Matz!

2017 Stats:
2-7, 13 G, 6.08 ERA, 66.2 IP, 19 BB, 48 K, 1.530 WHIP

I would be so incredibly happy if Matz pitched his projected like for last year, this upcoming year. 151 Innings? I’ll take it. I was upset and didn’t want to believe he would only toss 151 innings last year. A 3.29 ERA? a 1.1997 WHIP. Yes Please.

Unlike the Harvey projections, a few projections saw him regressing a hair, they ended up being the closest to reality for Matz.

All in all, with his injuries last, looking at last years projections for these two doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

This series or articles was way more fun to write back when we were covering pitchers. If a hitter didn’t match the projection, they typically performed better. The pitchers on the other hand have done way worse. Anyway, here’s Matt Harvey. I wonder how he did compared to projections (sarcasm).

2o17 Stats:
5-7, 19 G, 92.2 IP, 6.70 IP, 47 BB, 67 K, 1.694 WHIP

Well. That was fun.

Harvey struggled. A lot.

Here’s what I’m taking from this projection review. Every projection, and there were a lot of them, all had Harvey bouncing back from his tough 2016 campaign. They were all wrong.

I was wrong.

The universe was wrong.