213 Miles From Shea

I almost debated not doing a reviewing projections for David Wright since he never made it back to the majors last year. Here’s what the computer models thought coming into the season:

So when reviewing his projections, it turns out his last season stats and Sporting News Projections were the best at reading the tea leaves that Wright just would not play. I assume that stat projections will be similar this year where they project Wright to put up limited numbers but still see him playing.

It brings pain, sadness and sorrow seeing this happen to the Franchise Part 2.

In about a month the focus will be on Spring Training, the Mets roster, hopes, dreams, etc and STAT PROJECTIONS. Wonderful Stat Projections. But do they pan out? Let’s take a walk down memory lane going through last year’s projections and seeing how they stood against the test of time.

His actual numbers:

74 G, 237 PA, 218 AB, 23 R, 55 H, 9 2B, 10 HR, 35 RBI, .252 BA, .305 OBP, .431 SLG

Rene Rivera, now an Angel, split time with the Mets and the Cubs last year. His slash line performed well. He hit 30 points above the projection, 25 points above OBP and almost 100 points better in slugging. The latter is due to him doubling homers vs what was projected. He was also given considerably more playing time than projected.

When looking at projections, the computers all handled Rene about the same, so they all failed about the same.

Rene is now an Angel. He would have been nice to bring back but he also doesn’t fit long or short term as a Met. (Short term only if the Mets went all in for this upcoming season).

I am rarely critical of a low-risk, high-reward signing. I think it’s in my nature. Maybe I played Pokemon and Magic the Gathering too long as a child/adolescent so I’m used to spending $2.99 on a pack of cards (please, do not inform me on what they cost now) for a chance of getting something amazing, an elusive Charizard I never caught, but being completely fine with settling for a Bulbasaur and a Weedle.

Y’all still with me?

I’ve supported the vast majority of low-risk, high-reward signings the Mets have made in the past but I haven’t completely come around yet on Adrian Gonzalez. After some reflection and contemplation while sitting in traffic on McCarter Highway in Newark, I’m starting to see through the haze why I feel this way.

I haven’t come around yet on the Jay Bruce signing yet either.

Why? I didn’t know at first for a while either. Jay Bruce is the type of player I generally love. He put up good numbers last season and he was quiet. In some parallel universe where I’m athletic and overall just amazing, I’d like to imagine I’m a baseball player like Jay Bruce (or Lucas Duda. Or Carlos Beltran).

But the Mets are like a young adult who is trying to figure out life. Their physical home is a mess and the car is just alright. Signing Bruce was like getting a new car, which is nice and almost needed, but it didn’t address the most pressing need, that their home has a huge hole in the ceiling and it’s letting in rain, snow and ground balls up the middle thanks to a limited second base defense.

Jay Bruce is nice, but it didn’t attack the most pressing need.
If Gonzalez works, it will be very nice, but it doesn’t fill the most pressing need.

In the past I’ve looked the other way but this year I find myself more cynical than ever. After every signing part of me, a growing part of my Mets-soul, feels it will be the last move the Mets will make this off-season. If the Mets off-season ends now, this is not a good allocation of resources. If the Mets acquire a 2B/3B with above average defense it will flip to a good off-season. If the Mets additionally acquire a starter pitcher for depth it will be a great off-season. We could still have a great off-season. We can also have a terrible one still.

I’m not used to be cynical yet. I’m not ready to uninspired by looking at a roster that looks the same as last year minus Neil Walker and plus Gonzalez. I want to believe and I don’t want to be this way.

Maybe a little low-risk, high-reward is what I need.

TJ Rivera on the Citi Field Scoreboard

Matt Winaker on the scoreboard in Brooklyn.

Cespedes batting in San Diego!

Duda, Lagares, Plawecki and Conforto on a huge advertisement at MCU Park in Brooklyn – which barring a reunion with Duda this off season, will probably be replaced.

Gsellman banner outside of Citi Field!

Seth Lugo pitching in San Diego!

Paul Sewald stepping up in the dugout before a game in San Diego last July.