213 Miles From Shea

Adrian Hernandez was signed out of the DR and 2018 was his first year play professional ball which he did at age 17 in the Dominican Summer League. He’s graded at 50 with Extreme Risk. From Baseball America, “Hernandez had never lifted weights prior to signing, so his power to his pull side and the middle of the field speaks to his present strength and and bat speed”.

In the DOSL he slashed .261/.351/.386 hitting 5 homers and 12 doubles over 285 plate appearances. He spent the bulk of his playing time in Center Field with a just a couple of games at the corner spots and 2 where he came in only as a hitter. He committed 0 errors in 124 chances and recorded 119 putouts with 5 assists. This is remarkable only because the closing like to the Baseball America blurb about him was “Regarded as a hard nose player, Hernandez will begin to working to improve his defensive instincts.”

He’s young and is still quite far away. Most likely he starts next season back in the DOSL or in the Gulf Coast League given his age. Even at 18 next year, there’s a chance he will still be below the average age (or just ever so slightly above it) in the DOSL, the Gulf Coast League is the next significant step for him. If he ends up playing all of next year in the DOSL, then the following year he probably goes straight to Kingsport where he will be at 19 still below the average age at that level. (For this, I’m using Edgardo Fermin as a guide).

Coming into 2018 there was disagreement across prospect sources evaluating Mets talent. MLB pipeline called David Thompson the Mets #21 best prospect. Baseball America was much more muted, thinking #29. David, who will be 25 during the 2019 season, is coming off a season where he missed significant time due to hairline fracture in his hand. Further complicating his path: the Mets still have Todd Frazier and they traded for Will Toffey. While Toffey isn’t elite, neither is Thompson right now.

The injury this season was the first health set back for Thompson as a pro. In college he had surgery on his shoulder twice and one for thoracic outlet syndrome (the same situation Harvey was in and Wahl, who the Mets acquired with Toffey).

In 2017 Thompson slashed a .263/.325/.429 in Binghamtom and last year he hit .258/.329/.379.

Last season was mostly a wash for Thompson, and he may be able to use the Mets odd log jam at third base (competing with Toffey, Frazier for a whole season) to his advantage and capitalize on a strong 2019 minors campaign.

He does have two more hurdles. First, what if the Mets sign a third basemen to a long contract this off-season? He could still be called up later as a bench player. Second, and more pressing for Thompson, if the Mets don’t add him to the Rule V draft, he could be picked up by another team in December (which means he would have to make his MLB debut with them or come back to us).

BA gave him a 45 with a High Risk last year. We agree here.

Today we start a 30 part series looking into the top 30 prospects in the Mets according to Baseball America before the start of the 2018 season.

Coming in at #30 with a BA Grade of 50 / Risk: Extreme is Right Handed Pitcher Christian James. The Mets drafted James in 2016 out of high school (Florida) and he played the 2016 season with the Gulf Coast Mets posting a 0.52 ERA over 14 games and 17.0 innings. In 2017 he pitched 52.0 innings with Kingsport posting a 4.18 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP.

In their write up on Christian James, they compared him to John Gant / Rob Whalen and ended with, “James mixes pitches well and exudes mound presence… He could develop into a No. 3 or 4 starter”.

While Baseball America expected him with Columbia in 2018, he ended up playing almost the entire season with Brooklyn posting a 2.01 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP in 71.2 innings. He also got a start at St. Lucie allowing 1 run and 1 hit over 5.0 innings and a start in Binghamton allowing 1 run from 3 hits over 4.0 innings. (Important to note: he made these starts before going to Brooklyn)

James is still young, he’ll be 21 next season and the Mets are pretty thin right now with starting pitching prospects. My gut tells me right now he starts the season in St. Lucie depending on how many starting pitchers the Mets organization signs next year.

Behind the numbers, Amazin’ Avenue posted some information about his pitch speed (dropped between ’17 and ’18) and control (below-average). I don’t want to quote their work since they did all the research, so please go over there to read it. Their write up leaves me overall concerned about James but James was never a big ticket prospect. The hope with James out of high school was his velocity would come as he grew into his body. There is still a chance this happens.

If you take the view point of James being the 30th best player in the Mets system, then I would say his stock had to rise after this season. I don’t know if he breaks the top 20 until he shows he can consistently put up the same numbers in double A which he may get the chance to do in the second half of next year.

The Mets are going to have a busy off-season this year even if they don’t make any upgrades on the roster due to off the field things going on. That being said, it is our hope, and probably your hope as well, that the Mets make changes on roster to be competitive next season. These are the potential things we expect to be reading about in the off-season in no particular order:

Mets Marketing Goes Into Overdrive for the 1969 Mets
Next year is the 50th anniversary (ordinal?) of the Amazin’s Mets. During last year’s Queens Baseball Convention in January, on the Meet the Mets executive panel, the representatives from the marketing and ticket departments strongly suggested that there will be a celebration (I believe someone asked this as a question them but I’m struggling to recall). This is something that should be celebrated. It feels like the Mets have started to forget about the ’69 team over the last couple of years (to be fair, there was a huge anniversary for the ’86 team that aided that), so this is a great time to cherish some Mets history.

New Triple A Team – New Identity?
The Mets are moving their AAA team to Syracuse and thankfully not a red eye away now for players who need to make an emergency trip to Queens. When the Mets took over the Buffalo Bisons a little less than a decade ago, they redesigned the team a bit to make the colors and the logo look more like the Mets (and this was subsequently undone when the Mets left). They did not do this when they took over for the 51’s. My gut says the Sky Chiefs go through a significant redesign possibly including a new name before the start of the season.

Who is the GM?
This is the first question that has to be answered for the Mets going forward. The trade deadline felt incredibly messy with three GMs all being controlled by the Wilpons. Reality dictates whomever Fred and Jeff pick will be bound by the same rules as Sandy and everyone else the last couple of years.

Do the Mets Sell?
With how the Mets played at the end of the year, this seems like a ridiculous idea but there is still a small possibility that the Mets try to shed 2 or 3 of deGrom, Syndergaard and Wheeler. We’ll know if this is actually a possibility after the Mets announce their GM.

Do the Mets participate in the Free Agent bonanza this off-season?
Some of the best players in baseball are on the market this year. What we have seen the Mets do the last couple of years is spend a lot of money but focus more on tier 2 and 3 players, or players who were Mets (or both) and then things just don’t end up working out (Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, who wasn’t a disaster but…). Ultimately the best move for the Mets would be to sign Machado and turn Frazier into a superutility player, but we know how Fred and Jeff feel about allowing money to sit on the bench (Jay Bruce, Jose Reyes, , etc)

Who’s On First?
Jay Bruce? Dominic Smith? Peter Alonso? Does Alonso even get called up before the Super II date? Does he even get called up before rosters expand?

How many bullpen pitchers do the Mets sign?
Do the Mets sign players who were Mets, again? Do they go with the youth movement? Do they balk at the prices? Do they go tier 2 and then act disappointed with the results?

Who is Catching?
The Mets have a weird problem. Plawecki is not as bad as it seems. He’s just not a tier 1 catcher right now. He’s definitely above average. This feels like a recent problem with the team where players are too good to be obviously replaced, or where the cost of replacement doesn’t feel like it matches with the expected results. Is this line of thinking an odd cognitive dissonance perpetuated by Fred and Jeff?

Tonight the Athletics will play against the Yankees in a one-game, Wild Card playoff. You’re a Mets fan (probably), that’s why you are on this site (probably) which means you remember this Wild Card format from 2016 when the Mets lost in a pitching duel against the Giants on a three-run homer to Conor Gillaspie given up by Familia. Familia also became the goat (not G.O.A.T.) of the 2015 World Series, somewhat unfairly, as he was tagged for 3 blown saves. The first one was probably his fault, the other two he was surrounded by defensive miscues, inherited runners, etc.

For better or worse this reputation has followed Familia in terms of his pitching ability. Even this season when statistically he was dominate there was still a feeling, a shadow among Mets fans about his pitching ability (important to note that in my experience, the Mets fans who devalue Familia as a pitcher are NOT the same Mets fans who question the Mets and MLB’s treatment of his domestic violence allegation, which in my opinion has still not been dealt with correctly).

The Mets traded Familia away for an incredibly weak return of prospect this year (although hard to tell half a season out), there is still a high chance the Mets and Familia will reunite.

If Familia comes into the game late today, how will the story of his post season success progress? Does he blow the save today? Is he is dominate 2018 self? Can he help end the Yankees season, sitting the Bronx back down? Will he give the major networks what they want? A Red Sox / Yankees ALDS?

I guess we’ll find out in probably 15 hours.

Edit:
15 hours later and the Athletics find themselves out of the playoffs, but this time it wasn’t Familia’s fault. The Athletics went with a bullpen game and ended up allowing 7 runs to the Yankees but Familia, he ended the game with a shutout inning. While it wasn’t a high leverage situation, at least it wasn’t bad.

One last game for 2018.

We all knew last night was going to be emotional, but being prepared for it didn’t matter. One of the greatest players ever to suit up for the Mets worked his way back and it was perfect. David Wright, you’re the best. Thank you for everything. Also, sorry the Mets bats are so inept that you had to wait 13 innings to address the fans.

The Mets going 13 last night may make today look a little different. Sometimes there’s a mentality, not all the time, to get a lot of pitchers in the game to close out the season. We’ll see what happens today. Syndergaard is starting the last game for a second year in a row (although last time it was more of a rehab start). He is 12-4 over 24 games and 145.1 innings with a 3.22 ERA, 2.87 FIP, 1.252 WHIP and a 114 ERA+. He tossed 6 scoreless innings his last time out holding the Braves to three hits (the bullpen collapsed behind him). It was his second time in three starts he held opponents scoreless and 3 amazing start in his last 5. If that pattern holds, today should be rough, let’s hope it doesn’t hold. He is 2-0 in as many starts against the Marlins this year allowing 5 runs, 4 earned over 13.0 innings. The Marlins have the following numbers against him:

• Dietrich 6-18, 2 2B
• Castro 3-11, 2B, BB
• Rojas 4-11
• Realmuto 1-9
• Anderson 2-7, 2B
• Holaday 2-4, BB
• Lee 1-3

The Mets bats draw Sandy Alcantara again who is 2-2 over his first 5 starts as a Marlin pitching 27.0 innings posting a 4.00 ERA, 5.68 FIP, 1.556 WHIP and a 91 ERA+. Two of his first three starts were against the Mets and they were good allowing 3 runs total over 12.0 innings. Since then he has pitched 8.0 innings over two starts against the Nationals allowing 9 runs. The Mets have the following numbers against Sandy:

• Nimmo 1-5, 2B, BB
• Conforto 0-5
• Flores 0-4, BB
• Frazier 1-4
• Bruce 0-3
• Jackson 0-3
• Plawecki 0-1
• Mesoraco 1-2, 2B
• Matz 1-2, HR

Let’s Go Mets!

HAPPY DAVID WRIGHT DAY!

The Mets are set to to play what will undoubtedly be an emotional night as the captain comes back for this first start in over two years. Last night David Wright grounded out pretty much immediately at start of his pinch hit at bat. That doesn’t matter. Wright has worked so hard and has overcome so many hurdles to return to Queens. For people like me, born in the late 80’s early 90’s, see David Wright as the player attached to the franchise. The rising star during our formative teenage years. Everyone has a David Wright story and we all wish him the best. Thank you David Wright for everything.

Steven Matz will start the game tonight. He’s 5-11 over 29 games and 148.0 innings with a 4.14 ERA, 4.77 FIP, 1.270 WHIP and 89 ERA+. His last start against the Nationals was not good, allowing 3 runs over 3.0 innings. However, overall in his 6 games he has pitched 33.1 innings allowing 10 runs posting a 2.70 ERA. He is 1-0 over two starts against the Marlins this year allowing 4 runs, 3 earned, over 11.1 innings while striking out 10. The Marlins have the following numbers against him:

• Rojas 1-13, 2B
• Castro 0-11, 5 K
• Realmuto 3-9, BB
• Anderson 1-6, 2B
• Brinson 0-4
• Dietrich 0-2
• Riddle 1-3

The Mets bats will get a look at Trevor Richards who is 4-9 over 24 games and 119.2 innings with a 4.66 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 1.396 WHIP and a 77 ERA+. Richards is coming off a good start against the Reds where he held them scoreless over 7.0 innings. before that in a three game stretch he allowed 16 runs, 14 earned, off 16 hits in 11.1 innings including a start against the Mets where he allowed 6 runs, 4 earned over 5.0 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against Richards:

• Bruce 0-2, BB
• Conforto 0-3
• McNeil 2-3, 3B
• Nimmo 0-3
• Rosario 1-3, HR
• Smith 1-3, 2B
• Reyes 2-2, 2B

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets wrapped up their series with the Braves last night with a win! Jason Vargas was able to notch a good win on the end of a bad season and Plawecki and Mesoraco hit two absolute bombs to provide the runs. Now the Mets head into David Wright eve as the Mets gear up for their last series and three games of 2018.

Corey Oswalt makes the last start of his rookie season tonight. He is 3-3 over 16 games and 11 starts over 60.2 innings posting a 6.08 ERA, 5.84 FIP, 1.352 WHIP and 62 ERA+. As a starter he is 2-3 over 51.1 innings with a much better 4.91 ERA. He was good his last time out allowing 2 runs over 4 hits and 5.0 innings against the Nationals. He’s faced Miami a couple of times this year. At the end of June he allowed 6 runs over 2.2 innings (in a game I would argue he was off his normal routine) and then in August he allowed 3 runs over 6.0 innings. He has never faced the Marlins in Queens and the Marlins have the following numbers against him:

• Anderson 1-5
• Castro 2-5
• Dietrich 1-3, 2B
• Realmuto 2-5
• Rojas 0-4
• Alcantara 0-1
• Brinson 1-1, HR

Jose Urena is nursing a right thigh injury but he’s scheduled to start tonight anyway. He is 8-12 over 30 games and 168.0 innings with a 4.07 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 1.173 WHIP, and an 89 ERA+. He’s been on a tear in his last four starts allowing 3 runs over 24.0 innings (1/13 ERA) inching a 6.1 inning, 1 run start against the Mets. He is 1-2 over 16.2 innings against the Mets allowing 8 runs from 17 hits (4.32 ERA). The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Reyes 6-18, 2B, 3B
• Conforto 7-16, 2B, HR, BB
• Bruce 5-15, 2B, 2 HR, BB
• Plawecki 2-9
• Nimmo 1-8, HR
• Frazier 1-7
• Rosario 3-8, 2B
• McNeil 1-6

Let’s Go Mets!

If last night was deGrom’s last game of the season, then it was a very good one. Jacob tossed 8.0 scoreless innings allowing only 2 hits and striking out 10, lowering his absurd ERA to 1.70 capping off one of the top seasons by a Mets pitcher for all time. The Mets bats managed to squeeze out a few runs and deGrom will finish with a winning record, something that doesn’t really matter but apparently matters to the people voting. Also Conforto hit his 28th homer of the season as he inches closer to 30.

Jason Vargas gets the start for the Mets. His year has been pretty horrible but there were a few gems. Overall he is 6-9 over 19 games and 85.0 innings with a 6.25 ERA, 5.31 FIP, 1.494 WHIP and 59 ERA+. His last two starts have been an improvement, especially compared to his season numbers where he has allowed 4 runs over 11.2 innings. He is 1-2 against the Braves this year allowing 10 runs over 14.2 innings. The Braves have the following numbers against him:

• Suzuki 10-43, HR, 3 BB, 6 K
• Markakis 8-35, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 8 K
• Flowers 1-9, H, BB
• Albies 3-8, 2B
• Freeman 2-7
• Acuna 4-5, 3B, HR

The Mets bats get Julio Teheran in his final start before the playoffs. He is 9-8 over 30 games and 169.2 innings with a 4.03 ERA, 4.83 FIP, 1.191 WHIP and 100 ERA+. He’s coming off of a rough start against the Phillies where he allowed 4 runs over 6.1 innings and before that he was on a good streak posting a 2.12 ERA over 3 games and 17.0 innings. Over his four starts against the Mets this year he has allowed 5 runs from 16 hits from 26.2 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Bruce 8-37, 3 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 8 K
• Reyes 6-30, 2 3B, 3 BB, 6 K
• Conforto 5-20, HR, BB
• Frazier 3-17, 2B, HR
• Rosario 1-10, 2B, 3B

Let’s Go Mets!

Noah Syndergaard’s strong start wasn’t enough for the Mets last night as they fell to the Braves 7-3 and look to rebound tonight. After Syndergaard tossed 6 scoreless innings the bullpen with Gsellman and Blevins imploded. But that’s all yesterday! Today Jacob deGrom makes what will probably be his last start this season!

Jacob deGrom is 9-9 over 31 starts over 209.0 innings with a 1.77 ERA (league leading), 2.03 FIP (league leading), 0.938 WHIP, and 209 ERA+ (league leading). In his last 7 starts he has allowed 11 runs, 9 earned over 50.0 innings, a 1.62 ERA while striking out 64. He is 0-2 against the Braves this year despite starting against them 5 times posting a 1.09 ERA over 33.0 innings. The Braves have the following numbers against him:

• Freeman 12-41, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 11 K
• Markakis 10-36, HR, BB, 5 K
• Inciarte 6-32, 2 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
• Albies 3-17, 2B, BB
• Swanson 3-13, 2B, 3 BB, 6 K
• Flowers 4-11, HR, 3 BB

The Mets bats will desperately try to get deGrom a win against Sean Newcomb who is 12-9 over 29 starts and 158.1 innings with a 4.04 ERA.  He’s coming off a rough start vs the Nationals where he allowed 5 runs over 3.0 innings and in his last four starts has allowed 15 runs over 17.1 innings (one of those starts he allowed 1 run over 6.0 innings). He was good against the Mets at the start of the season tossing 6.0 innings allowing 3 runs, 2 earned and then allowing no runs over 7.0. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Reyes 1-9, 3 K
• Bruce 1-6, 2B
• Conforto 0-3, 2 BB
• Frazier 0-5, BB
• Nimmo 0-6, 3 K
• Plawecki 2-6
• Rosario 3-4, 2 2B
• Smith 1-2, 2B

Let’s Go Mets!