213 Miles From Shea

Despite the Mets having 10 men on base last night from 5 hits and 5 walks, they only mustered 2 runs and fell to the Padres 7-2. The game felt like the same old story for the Mets who made defensive misplays, had starting pitching that flashed brilliance but couldn’t execute at times, an offense that couldn’t push runs across the plate despite being on base and a bullpen that made everything worse. That being said, the Met will try to persist and move forward this afternoon in the rubber game of series and an unusual noon start time.

Jacob deGrom closes things out for the Mets today. He is 5-7 over 20 games and 122.0 innings with a 3.02 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 1.107 WHIP and 136 ERA+. In the month of July he has pitched 19.0 innings over three starts allowing 3 runs from 12 hits and 9 walks, a 1.42 ERA. Since May 22nd, he has started 11 games and tossed 70.0 innings with a 2.31 ERA. He did catch the Padres in San Diego back on May 6th and allowed 2 runs over 7.0 innings from 4 hits and a walk. The Padres have the following stats against deGrom:

• Wil Myers 4-19, 2 2B, HR, 2 BB, 8 K
• Eric Hosmer 4-12, BB, 3 K
• Manny Machado 4-12, BB, 3 K
• Austin Hedges 0-9, 2 BB, 3 K
• Greg Garcia 2-6, BB, K
• Manuel Margot 2-6, 2B, K
• Hunter Renfroe 3-6, 2B, 2 HR, K
• Ian Kinsler 0-3, 2 K

The Mets bats will try to find themselves against Eric Lauer today who is 5-7 over 18 starts and 96.0 innings with a 4.31 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 1.333 WHIP, and a 99 ERA+. He is coming off a rough start against the Cubs where he allowed 5 runs over 4.2 innings. Before that he was on a stretch of three starts in a row only allowing 1 earned run. That stretch lowered his season ERA from 4.60 to 4.04. He missed the Mets in 2019 but he did play against them in Citi last year allowing 6 runs from 6 hits and 3 walks in 4.0 innings. The only Mets on the roster today who have already faced Lauer are Amed Rosario (1-2, 3B, BB) and Michael Conforto (2-2, HR).

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets try to take the series tonight from the Padres after last night’s historic game! Yesterday Robinson Cano hit three homers, essentially being the entirety of the Mets offense, to lead the Amazin’s 5-2 over Chris Paddack and the Padres. Paddack, who pitched well except to Cano, continued fanning the flames of a rivalry between himself and Alonso. Honestly it still feels like a one sided obsession.

Anyway, Noah Syndergaard gets the start today as rumors continue to swirl about trading him. The most likely scenario: the Mets keep him through the deadline. But there is a nonzero chance, albeit practically zero, today is Syndergaard’s last start as a Met. He has started 19 games and tossed 119.2 innings with a 4.36 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.228 WHIP with a 94 ERA+. In his last two starts Syndergaard has allowed only 3 runs over 14.0 innings from 11 hits and 1 walk while striking out 17. One of his worst starts this season was against the Padres where he allowed 5 runs, 4 earned over 6.0 innings from 9 hits and a walk. The Padres have the following numbers against Syndergaard:

• Eric Hosmer 2-11, 2B, BB, 4 K
• Ian Kinsler 4-9, 2 K
• Manny Machado 3-6, 2B, K
• Wil Myers 0-5, BB, K
• Francisco Mejia 1-3, K
• Hunter Renfroe 2-3, 2B, K

The Mets bats will get a look at Dinelson Lamet as he continues his road back from Tommy John surgery (April 2018). Lamet debuted in 2017 and tossed 21 games and 114.1 innings with a 4.57 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 1.242 WHIP, and a 93 ERA+. So far this year he has pitched 3 games and 14.0 innings with a 5.14 ERA, 5.73 FIP, 1.429 WHIP and 84 ERA+. The last time Lamet faced the Mets he was making his major league debut where he allowed 1 run over 5.0 innings from 3 hits and two walks. The only current Met who has seen Lamet in a major league game is Michael Conforto who struck out all three times against him.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets have had a frustrating weekend. After winning four games in a row, the Mets dropped 3 of 4 games to the Giants with all three losses coming in extra innings. If we wanted to be serious about the Mets making a run at the post-season, they needed to win all of those games. Now it is still mathematically possible for the Mets to make a run, but extremely unlikely. Maybe the Mets make a bunch of trades in the next 7 days? Or maybe they don’t do anything and just let the season play out.

All of this makes Jason Vargas‘ start tonight interesting. Is he auditioning for another team tonight? Maybe. He is 4-5 over 17 games and 16 starts pitching 82.2 innings with a 4.25 ERA, 4.82 FIP, 1.282 WHIP and 97 ERA+. He’s coming off the definition of an average start, allowing 3 runs over 6.0 innings from 5 hits and a walk while striking out 4 against the Twins. Overall, the month of July hasn’t been too kind to Vargas who has posted a 6.61 ERA, .304 opponents OBP and .867 opponents OPS over 16.1 innings. The Padres have the following numbers against him:

• Ian Kinsler 25-67, 8 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 2 K (1.050 OPS)
• Eric Hosmer 2-15, 3 BB, 3 K
• Manny Machado 4-15, K
• Wil Myers 1-10, 2B, 2 BB, 5 K
• Austin Hedges 1-2, K

The Mets bats draw the rookie tonight, Chris Paddack, who was on a tear in April, and pretty much right up until after he faced the Mets. When Alonso won the rookie of the month in April, Chris called him out by saying “I rather win Rookie of the Year”. Since then Chris hit a rough patch, was sent down the minors to conserve innings, and is now back up. On the season he is 6-4 over 16 games and 90.0 innings with a 2.70 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 0.867 WHIP and 156 ERA+.

When he faced the Mets last time he came into the game with a 1.91 ERA (and clearly was battling Alonso for rookie of the month in April). He then dominated the Mets allowing no runs over 7.2 innings from 4 hits and a walk while striking out 11, his first (and only) double digit strikeout game. Then over 5 games he allowed 20 runs, 16 earned, over 25.0 innings from 30 hits and 3 walks (8 homers), leading to his brief demotion. Since then he has dominated again, pitching 24.1 innings with a 1.48 ERA and opponents getting on base at a .193 clip. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Jeff McNeil 2-4, K
• Pete Alonso 0-3, 2 K
• Robinson Cano 0-2, BB
• Michael Conforto 0-3, 2 K
• Todd Frazier 1-3
• Adeiny Hechavarria 0-3, K
• Jacob deGrom 1-2, K (Obviously not playing tonight, included so you know who got the other hit)

Let’s Go Mets!

On Thursday the Mets got a wonderful start from Noah Syndergaard and tons of amazing innings from the bullpen, but squandered it with a silent offence. On Friday the Mets got a dazzling start from Jacob deGrom, but nothing from the offense and Mets lost. Yesterday, on Walker Locket day, Lockett pitched a game beyond initial expectations for him and the offense was unleashed, smacking homers all over the place. Now the Mets have a chance to split the series today with a win in San Francisco before getaway day.

Steven Matz gets to close out the series today. He is 5-6 over 19 games and 17 starts pitching 85.0
innings with a 4.87 ERA, 5.45 FIP, 1.482 WHIP and 85 ERA+. Matz was effective, albeit limited, in his first start back from the pen earlier in the week. He tossed 4.0 innings allowing 2 runs from 5 hits and a walk. Last year he pitched against the Giants twice allowing 3 runs over 12.0 innings from 5 hits and 2 walks while striking out 16. The Giants have the following numbers against him:

Brandon Belt 1-5, BB, 4 K
Tyler Austin 2-5, K
Evan Longoria 2-5, 2 HR
Joe Panik 1-4, BB
Austin Slater 2-5
Brandon Crawford 2-3, K
Buster Posey 1-2

The Mets bats draw Conner Menez who will be making his major league debut. The lefty has split time between AA and AAA posting a 3.13 ERA over 18 games, 17 starts in 95.0 innings of work with a 1.126 WHIP. With Sacremento, his AAA squad, he has a 3.86 ERA over 35.1 innings with a 1.415 WHIP. Of course, there are a few things to remember with that line. First, it’s only 7 games, 6 starts. Second, it’s in the PCL which has been notoriously tough for pitchers (and that Giants AA team is in Richmond, VA where the climate problems for baseball don’t exist). Third, he posted this line despite being 2.8 years younger than the league average.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets have gone from a four game winning streak to losing two games in a row in heartbreaking fashion. Thursday they lost in the 16th inning after getting the go-ahead run in the top half. Yesterday they lost in the 10th inning despite an amazing outing from deGrom. If both of these games just broke the other way, we would be talking about defending a 6 game winning streak today. Alas, you don’t become one of the worst teams in the National League by chance. The Mets hope to turn it around today to make tomorrow a split day rather than a salvage day.

Walker Lockett will try to put things back together for the Mets today, and what we really mean by that: he will try to put himself back together. In two starts for the Mets this year he has allowed 10 runs from 10 hits in 7.2 innings leading to a 11.74 ERA, 6.22 FIP, 1.696 WHIP and 37 ERA+. He has not faced anyone on the Giants roster yet in a major league game which makes sense- he’s only had 6 starts in his major league career.

The Mets bats will try to score runs against Jeff Samardzija after not scoring runs for most of this series. Jeff is 7-7 over 19 games and 105.1 innings with a 3.93 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 1.177 WHIP and 107 ERA+. He’s been good in July, making three starts, pitching 21.2 innings allowing only 4 runs on 13 hits (1.66 ERA). The Mets have the following numbers against him:

Todd Frazier 1-9, 2B, 3B, HR, 4 BB, 5 K
Wilson Ramos 6-16, 2B, 3 HR, 5 K
Adeiny Hechavarria 6-14, HR, K
Robinson Cano 5-6, 3 2B, BB, K
Michael Conforto 2-4, 2B, HR

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets and Giants continue their series tonight as the ace of the staff takes the mound for the Mets. Jacob deGrom is 5-7 over 19 starts and 115.0 innings with a 3.21 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 1.122 WHIP and 127 ERA+. By peripheral stats, his season is becoming better than his 2017 season where he posted a 3.50 FIP, 1.187 WHIP and 117 ERA+. Anyway, he’s coming off a short outing where he only pitched 5.0 innings but also allowed only 1 runs from 6 hits and 3 walks (and shockingly the bullpen and bats behind him supported him through the end of the game). He missed the Giants earlier in June and last year he allowed 2 runs, 1 earned over 6.0 innings while striking out 10. The Giants have the following stats against him:

• Brandon Belt 3-16, HR, 5 BB, 5 K
• Joe Panik 3-17, 2B, 2 BB, 5 K
• Brandon Crawford 4-17, 7 K
• Buster Posey 4-14, 2B, HR, BB, K
• Evan Longoria 1-5, B, 2 K
• Pablo Sandoval 2-6, 2 2B, 2 K

The Mets bats will get a look at Tyler Beede who is 3-3 over 11 games and 9 starts over 51.1 innings with a 5.44 ERA, 5.30 FIP, 1.578 WHIP and 78 ERA+. He’s coming off an average start where he allowed 3 runs from 7 hits and no walks over 6.2 innings and over his last 5 starts he has posted a much more respectable 3.41 ERA. He faced the Mets back in June allowing 6 runs, 5 earned over 5.0 innings from 5 hits and 4 walks. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Pete Alonso 0-1, BB
• Michael Conforto 1-2, HR, K
• Todd Frazier 0-2, BB, 2 K
• Jeff McNeil 2-3, 2B
• Wilson Ramos 0-1, 2 BB
• Amed Rosario 1-3, HR
• Robinson Cano 0-2

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets, owners of a 44-51 record, .463 winning percentage are technically the third worst team in the National League. The Marlins have a .376 percentage and the Reds who have one and lost one more game then the Mets, have a .462 percentage (essentially a tie).

Yet the Mets and the Reds are both only 5 games out of the Wild Card spot. There are a lot of games, and teams, in front of both teams but it feels like they have a shot.

The White Sox are the closest team to the Mets record wise in the American league at 42-50 have a .457 percentage and are 11 games out of the Wild Card. That seems right for that type of record. So what’s going on?

It looks like the problem is with the American League, and their lack of parity (or large amount of teams tanking) are buoying the National League. The Marlins are the only team in the National League below a .400 winning percentage but in the American League, 5 teams are at that mark. Not a single team in the National league has a run differential that has crossed -100 yet. But in the American League:

• White Sox -103
• Mariners -109
• Tigers -176
• Orioles -187

On the other end, the American League has 3 teams above .600 and 6 teams above .570. In the National League has only 1 team above .600 and two total above .570.

This matters when you start to look at Inter League Play. The following teams are at least 3 games below .500 in Inter League:

• Twins (3-6)
• Reds (6-9)
• Brewers (3-7)
• Orioles (3-7)
• Mariners (3-7)
• Blue Jays (2-11)
• Tigers (5-13)

There are only two National League teams on that list! One of them is essentially tied with the Mets for the worst record in the National League and the other actually has a wild card spot right now! In total only 5 National League teams are below .500 in Inter league while 10 teams are below .500 on the American League side. The NL is stealing wins, constricting the Wild Card race. If we go back to that list above, the Tigers, Blue Jays, Mariners and Orioles are all in the bottom of the American League (the other sub .400 team is the Royals, 3-5 in Inter League), their collective tanking is adding to the turmoil in the National League.

The Mets have won four games in a row! After taking the series in Miami, the Mets swept a two game set in Minnesota and now find themselves only 5 games out of the wild card. This is shocking because they have the third worst winning percentage in the National League (really they are tied for second as they are only .001 better than the Reds but that’s neither here nor there).

Odd math aside (quick armchair analysis blames a plethora of bad teams in the American League), the Mets can continue to muddle up their July plans today with a win, or at the very least get another showcasing of Noah Syndergaard out there. Syndergaard is 7-4 over 18 starts and 112.2 innings with a 4.55 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.243 WHIP and 89 ERA+. He’s coming off a strong start in Miami where he allowed 2 runs over 7.0 innings. He pitched against the Giants back in June and allowed 3 runs over 6.2 innings. The Giants have the following numbers against him:

• Brandon Belt 1-17, 4 BB, 5 K
• Joe Panik 5-20, 4 K
• Brandon Crawford 2-14, 3 BB, 4 K
• Evan Longoria 3-12, BB, 5 K
• Buster Posey 3-12, K
• Kevin Pillar 1-7, K
• Pablo Sandoval 1-4

The Mets bats will get a look at Madison Bumgarner who is 5-7 over 20 games and 116.2 innings with a 3.86 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.217 WHIP and 109 ERA+. In his last 4 starts he has tossed 20.0 innings allowing only 5 runs, 4 earned. He was average in his last start against the Mets on June 4th, allowing 3 runs over 6.0 innings from 6 hits and 2 walks. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Wilson Ramos 7-21, 2 2B, 2 HR, BB, 3 K
• Todd Frazier 7-17, 2B, 2 HR, BB, 3 K
• Michael Conforto 0-9, 6 K
• Juan Lagares 1-9, K
• Amed Rosario 0-7, K
• J.D. Davis 0-5, BB
• Jeff McNeil 2-6, 2 K
• Pete Alonso 2-2, HR
• Robinson Cano 1-3, 2B, K

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets are on a three game win streak! They look to sweep the two game set from the Twins this afternoon. Yesterday the bullpen was called on for 5 innings of work to protect a 1-run lead and it worked! The bullpen did their job! Can they do it again today?

Jason Vargas is the most likely pitcher not named Zack Wheeler to be traded before the deadline, and Wheeler’s recent trip to the IL makes this afternoon’s start by Vargas even more important. Can the Mets drive up his trade value? On the season he is 3-5 over 16 games and 15 starts logging 76.2 innings posting a 4.23 ERA, 4.66 FIP, 1.304 WHIP and 96 ERA+. His first start from the All-Star break was a rough one – he allowed 6 runs over 5.0 innings against the Marlins. Before that he allowed 17 runs, 14 earned over 47.1 innings in 8 games, a 2.66 ERA where opponents got on base against him at a .289 clip. His one relief outing this year was against the Twins and it was terrible – 4 runs in one inning, in a game the Mets lost 14-8. The Twins have the following stats against him:

• Nelson Cruz 12-34, 2 2B, 5 HR, 8 BB, 8 K
• C.J. Cron 2-10, 2 HR, 3 BB, 2 K
• Byron Buxton 2-7, 3B, BB, 3 K
• Eddie Rosario 3-7, 2B
• Jonathan Schoop 2-7, HR, BB, 3 K

The Mets bats will look to provide the Mets pitching staff with a little more breathing room against Martin Perez today. Perez is 8-3 over 18 games and 15 starts logging 95.0 innings with a 4.26 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 1.368 WHIP and 107 ERA+. Perez has struggled in his last 7 starts allowing 32 runs, 26 earned, from 39 hits and 14 walks in 37.0 innings (but only 2 homers!). He’s posted a 6.32 ERA in this stretch and opponents have an on base percentage of .331 (but only a .683 OPS). He pitched against the Mets in relief earlier this season, allowing 3 runs in 2.0 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Robinson Cano 7-37, 3 BB, 4 K
• Todd Frazier 2-7, BB
• J.D. Davis 1-5
• Amed Rosario 1-5, 3 K
• Michael Conforto 1-4, 2 K
• Wilson Ramos 2-4, K
• Adeiny Hechavarria 1-3
• Pete Alonso 0-0, BB
• Jeff McNeil 1-1

Let’s Go Mets!

Sunday was an improbable day for the Mets. A pleasantly unusual day. The type of day that makes you wonder: too many good things happened today, I’m sure something bad is going to happen. Why was it such a good day?

• The Mets won a rubber game
• Meaning the Mets actually won a series
• And it was a Sunday, the Mets never win those
• We haven’t even mentioned yet that it was on the ROAD. It’s been forever since the Mets won one of those
• Jacob deGrom started and the Mets scored more than 3 runs
• Robinson Cano homered in back to back days

That feels great, right? Well something bad did happen, Wheeler was placed on the IL for arm fatigue. The “armchair” GM in me (really not trying to make a pun here y’all) in feels that this related to the Mets rushing Wheeler out twice before the All-Star break. The Mets are pulling Matz out of the bullpen and into the rotation again as a stopgap measure (although Matz should have been returning to the rotation anyway). He is 5-6 over 81.0 innings and 18 games, 16 starts, this year with a 4.89 ERA, 5.40 FIP, 1.481 WHIP and 83 ERA+. After a terrible series of starts, he was mostly alright in the bullpen (meaning he didn’t allow any runs) but still managed to allow 3 hits over 1.0 innings split over two games. C.J. Cron is the only batter on the Twins roster who has seen Matz in a game and has gone 1-2 with a double and a walk.

The Mets get to see an old Yankee today – Michael Pineda! Pineda is 6-4 over 17 starts and 92.2 innings with a 4.56 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 1.176 WHIP and 99 ERA+. Before the All-Star break Pineda put together back to back starts of allowing 1 run over 6.0 innings which dropped his ERA from 5.02. Outside of bad start on June 23rd (5 runs over 5.0 innings) Pineda has been a different pitcher in his last 5 games allowing only 9 runs in 28.2 innings, a 2.83 ERA (and remember 5 of those runs are from one game). The last time he faced the Mets was in 2015, and he was quite good allowing only 2 run over 13.0 innings, but that was a very different Mets roster. The Mets have the following numbers against Pineda:

• Robinson Cano 6-12, 2 HE, 2 K
• Todd Frazier 1-3, K
• Juan Lagares 0-3, K
• Michael Conforto 0-2
• Adeiny Hechavarria 0-2, K

Let’s Go Mets!