213 Miles From Shea

Each year at 213 we look through the Non-Roster Invitees to spring training and get to know them a bit. Are they in camp to get a look at big league hitting/pitching to aid their development? Are the Mets just trying to get a better look at a future rookie? Are they a veteran trying to get back to the major league level? What can we expect from them this season?

The Mets signed Erasmo Ramirez because they need more starting pitcher / long relief depth. This isn’t new. It’s while the Mets signed Hector Santiago and Arquimedes Caminero last year. Ramirez was signed by the Mariners in 2007 and made his debut with the Mariners in 2012. Three years later he was traded to the Rays for Mike Montgomery and two years after that he was traded back to the Mariners for Steve Cishek. He is fresh off a one year deal with the Red Sox.

Last season he only got into one game and allowed 4 runs over 3.0 innings while posting a 4.74 ERA over 24 starts and 125.1 innings in Pawtucket. This included a 1.340 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 and a 2.21 K/BB which were all worse than his major league averages (1.255 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 2.73 K/BB). 2018 was the last time he saw significant playing time in the majors and had a 6.50 ERA, 6.69 FIP, 1.401 WHIP over 45.2 innings. This was a major step down from his previous season where between the Rays and Mariners he pitched in 37 games, 19 starts, 131.1 innings with a 4.39 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 1.173 WHIP, and 7.5 K/9.

Ramirez will be 30 this season, and what he has shown the last several years is he can eat innings, especially in Triple A which is probably where he is heading. If the Mets need him, then many, many things have gone wrong (or Ramirez suddenly starts dominating in Syracuse despite his recent performance). After Wacha/Porcello/Gsellman the Mets don’t have too many attractive options in the rotation and the Mets in recent years have had to go searching for people to make starts (hello Santiago last year). Ramirez is smart option for the Mets and hopefully the Mets don’t need to use him this year, and if they do, hopefully he is more like his 2017 self.

This is the second year where we are walking through the previous season’s Baseball America’s Top Prospect handbook, looking at the all the Mets to see how they are developing against Baseball America’s Projections.

The Mets drafted lefty Thomas Szapucki out of the 5th round in the 2015 draft. The theme in his pre-2019 write up in BA was the same theme you probably have repeated yourself when talking about the exciting southpaw – his injuries. He had a terrific 2016 where he posted a 1.38 ERA over 52.0 innings in Kingsport in Brooklyn and then fell into injury trouble (shoulder impingement followed by Tommy John surgery). The latter knocked him out for the whole 2018 season. So BA last year was excited, as we all were, to see Thomas back on the mound last year.

BA notes that Szapucki has a low to mid 90’s fastball from a lower arm slot and high-spin curveball that sits in the upper 70’s. They project him as either a #3 starter (ceiling) or high leverage reliever.

So how did he do in 2019?

2019 Columbia: 11 G, 21.2 IP, 2.08 ERA, 1.108 WHIP, 10.8 K/9
2019 St. Lucie: 9 G, 36.0 IP, 3.25 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 10.5 K/9
2019 Binghamton: 1 G, 4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, BB, 4 K, 2 HBP

Once he acclimated to pitching again, he was used as a starter, which most likely he will continue unless the Mets make the conscious decision that they need him sooner than later and turn him into a reliever. The Mets lack of starter talent right now outside of David Peterson also necessitates him in the rotation. Thomas had a great 2019 and I think we are all excited to see what he can do in 2020.

Each year at 213 we look through the Non-Roster Invitees to spring training and get to know them a bit. Are they in camp to get a look at big league hitting/pitching to aid their development? Are the Mets just trying to get a better look at a future rookie? Are they a veteran trying to get back to the major league level? What can we expect from them this season?

We just checked in on David Peterson last weekend briefly in our annual look back at the previous year’s Non-Roster Invites. We will also be looking at David again next week during our series of articles reviewing the 2019 Top 30 Mets prospects from Baseball America and comparing their 2019 performance to their projections.

For today we’ll just focus on David and what we could expect from him this year.

Peterson was a 2017 first round draft pick by the Mets out of the University of Oregon. He made it to Binghamton last year at the age of 23, and he spent the whole season there pitching 24 games and 116.0 innings with a 4.19 ERA, 1.345 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. He capped his season with a stint in the Arizona fall league where he made 4 starts totaling 13.0 innings with a 3.46 ERA and 2.000 WHIP.

Peterson (according to BA, more on this next week) has a low 90s fastball, the best slider in the system and projects right now to a 4th starter in the rotation. His stock in the last year has been boosted by the Mets trading away Justin Dunn, Simeon Woods-Richardson and Anthony Kay. All of the other pitchers the Mets are waiting for the in the rotation are either too far away or have massive and recent injury concerns (Franklyn Kilome, Thomas Szapucki, Jordan Humphreys to name a few).

Peterson will most likely open the season in Syracuse. He’s a deep back up plan right now for Queens. But if the Mets end up Mets-ing up the rotation in someway, then Peterson could get the call to Queens this year. He’s a pitcher I expect we’ll see a lot of in Spring Training.

This is the second year where we are walking through the previous season’s Baseball America’s Top Prospect handbook, looking at the all the Mets to see how they are developing against Baseball America’s Projections.

Desmond Lindsay was the Mets 2nd round pick in 2015 (also their highest pick) and has struggled the last several seasons. BA wrote about his injuries from 2017 and 2018, mainly an elbow injury from a nerve surgery and that even when healthy, recently Lindsay wasn’t producing. But before the book went to print in 2019, Desmond had a strong Arizona Fall League where he hit .286/.355/.643 in 31 PA’s with 3 homers, which is the same total he hit in all of 2018. BA credits this to a “new swing that allowed him to contact the ball out front. That enabled him to hit the ball in the air for power thanks to his above-average exit velocities.” Things were looking like they may start to go in the right direction. They ended their preview that he is one of the strongest and most athletic players the Mets have. In 2019 they thought he would reach Binghamton but there was a chance he would have to go back to St. Lucie first.

This is where the story takes a turn for Desmond. He’s assigned to St. Lucie and he struggles over 15 games and 59 PAs hitting .196/.305/.294. He then tears a hammy and is out for the rest of the season. So while BA’s prophecy wasn’t true, his performance was in line with their opening thoughts about his injury history.

The Mets are faced with an interesting choice of where to play the 23 year old next season. Does he start in a league he is definitely older than? Do they have room in Binghamton for him to figure it out and get regular reps? Can he put it all back together? We certainly hope so.

Each year at 213 we look through the Non-Roster Invitees to spring training and get to know them a bit. Are they in camp to get a look at big league hitting/pitching to aid their development? Are the Mets just trying to get a better look at a future rookie? Are they a veteran trying to get back to the major league level? What can we expect from them this season?

Pedro Payano made his major league debut last season with the Texas Rangers. Pedro was signed by the Rangers back in 2011 and resigned with the Rangers before the 2019 season. The righty pitched in 6 major league games and made 4 starts logging 22.0 innings with a 5.73 ERA, 5.62 FIP, 1.864 WHIP and a 92 ERA+.

With the Rangers AA team in Frisco last year, he posted a 4.43 ERA over 8 starts and 42.2 innings and with their AAA team in Nashville he posted a 5.44 ERA over 11 games and 41.1 innings. Overall in the minors he has a 3.68 ERA over 686.1 innings. There’s a good write up about Pedro here. Key points: he has a fastball that sits in the low 90’s with a low 80’s changeup and a fall off the table curve. He spent 3 years in the DOSL after being signed for 650k, then rocketed through the system in one year before he hit another wall that he couldn’t get over.

The Mets signed him for starting depth. For the 4th day in a row we feel compelled to mention that the Mets are thin with pitching at the top. Where they are really thin is starting pitching. Even though the Mets signed Porcello and Wacha after that, it’s question marks. Pedro Payano doesn’t directly fit in with the team, but the Mets need somebody who could eat up starting innings in triple A and in an emergency can do it in Queens. At the end of the day, he’s also only 25, so maybe he can find what he had in Syracuse.

This is the second year where we are walking through the previous season’s Baseball America’s Top Prospect handbook, looking at the all the Mets to see how they are developing against Baseball America’s Projections.

Francisco Alvarez‘s stock has been rising! In the Baseball Prospectus 2020 Annual he’s ranked as the 88th overall prospect in baseball and last year was his first year playing professional ball. The Mets signed him as a 16 year old in 2018. He was the 9th overall prospect in the 2018 international signing class. BA notes that “Alvarez hits for above-average power. He has the barrel control, bath path and plate discipline to hit for solid average.” They finished his profile by saying he has a long trek to the majors but should be worth the wait. At #12 on the prospect list, he’s the first prospect that has a ranking grade of 55 (Szapucki, Woods-Richardson, Newton, Vientos, Alonso and Gimenez are the others, Mauricio has a 60).

So how did he do in his first year of professional ball?

2019 Gulf Coast Mets: 7 G, 31 PA, .462/.548/,846
2019 Kingsport Mets: 35 G, 151 PA, .282/.377/.443

Alvarez came on the scene in a big way with a smooth 1.395 OPS in 7 games in the Gulf Coast league where he was 2.5 years younger than the average player. He then destroyed Kingsport with a .812 OPS. He was 3.5 years below the average age in that league.

Alvarez is going to be a lot of fun to watch. Just don’t BVW anywhere near him.

Each year at 213 we look through the Non-Roster Invitees to spring training and get to know them a bit. Are they in camp to get a look at big league hitting/pitching to aid their development? Are the Mets just trying to get a better look at a future rookie? Are they a veteran trying to get back to the major league level? What can we expect from them this season?

The Mets acquired Stephen Nogosek in the Addison Reed trade from several seasons ago (the trade included Gerson Bautista who was part of the Kelenic trade last year and Jamie Callahan who is no longer in the Mets system). Nogosek debuted in the majors last year at age 24, seeing time in 7 games and 6.2 innings where he allowed 12 hits, 8 runs, 2 homers, 2 walks while striking out 6. The righty didn’t have the greatest first season in the world.

The Mets depleted their top level prospects last year, a theme we are repeating now for a third day in this article series, which leaves the door open in 2020 for players like Nogosek, not on the roster yet but if players really falter, end up on the 60 day IL, etc, then he could find himself on the 40 man and later in Queens, again.

After the trade that brought him to the Mets, the Mets put him in St. Lucie where he posted a 5.06 ERA over 9 games and 16.0 innings with a 1.500 WHIP and a 8.4 K/9. The following year, when he was exactly the right age for St. Lucie, he destroyed it, posting a 3.06 ERA over 23 games and 32.1 innings with a 1.237 WHIP and 10.3 K/9.

The Mets then moved him up to Binghamton where he struggled in in his 16 games and 20.0 innings posting an 8.10 ERA. But then last year in 11 games he had a 0.95 ERA in 19.0 innings. Breaking the pattern, he went to Syracuse where he posted a 1.15 ERA in 31.1 innings despite being 2.2 years below the average age.

Essentially I go through this to note that with the exception of Syracuse, in the Mets system he goes from struggling at a specific level on year, to dominating it the next (and struggling at the next level). So if the pattern continues, then he should be better in Queens this year. While that is meant to be more tongue in cheek than predictive – Nogosek has shown improvement in performance at each level at the Mets system. It makes a lot of sense that a player who got a cup of coffee with the Mets last season and performed well in Syracuse last year gets a long look for a 40 man spot this spring. His ability to come back each year better than the previous is why we are rooting for him at 213.

This is the second year where we are walking through the previous season’s Baseball America’s Top Prospect handbook, looking at the all the Mets to see how they are developing against Baseball America’s Projections.

As we continue to push in top half of the prospect list, my energy to keep going is starting to dwindle. I’m starting to drag my feet a bit because I know there are a lot more articles to write like the one today – today’s prospect, Luis Santana, was traded away last year. While the Santana/Adolph for J.D. Davis trade may be one the Mets have won, the same can’t be said for a lot of the other trades that have depleted the Mets system.

For context – the Mets acquired J.D. Davis for Santana/Adolph not too long before the Mets signed Jed Lowrie. Initially that made giving up Santana/Adolph superfluous. Alas, Lowrie is a zombie and hasn’t played and Davis went on to have a shockingly good 2019. But who was Luis Santana, the centerpiece for the trade?

BA notes that the Mets only took one look at Santana and were so impressed that was all they needed to sign him to a 200k contract. They were rewarded when Santana hit .348 in Kingsport, the 5th best average in the league. BA wrote his “bat-to-ball skills, fearlessness and hitting rhythm give him a ceiling of a plus hitter.” He was projected to open the season in Columbia before the trade.

Instead he opened the season at Tri-City, who play in the same league as the Brooklyn Cyclones. In 52 games and 186 PAs he hit .267/.339/.352 which was enough for the Astros. He played the last 18 games at the season in Corpus Christie, their AA team where in 66 PAs he hit .228/.333/.263 while being an incredibly 4.8 years younger than the average player in the league (he’s 19). He’ll probably continue to rocket through their system (no pun intended)

It hurts to see a prospect go in a trade and do well but only because they aren’t doing well for us. We are happy for the prospect. What makes seeing Santana do well hurt less is J.D. Davis. Davis has blossomed in Queens in a way that he couldn’t in a crowded lineup in Houston. Maybe both clubs are winners here.

Each year at 213 we look through the Non-Roster Invitees to spring training and get to know them a bit. Are they in camp to get a look at big league hitting/pitching to aid their development? Are the Mets just trying to get a better look at a future rookie? Are they a veteran trying to get back to the major league level? What can we expect from them this season?

Every once in a while the Mets draft a player who ends up rocketing throughout the system due to a combination of talent, age and talent around the player in the system. Gilliam has gone from Brooklyn in 2018 (he was drafted in the 5th round of the 2018 draft) to Syracuse. The (now) 23 year old righty was half a year below the average age in Brooklyn in 2018, 0.9 years below the average age in St. Lucie (2019), 2.3 years below in Binghamton (2019) and a whopping 4.2 years below the average in Syracuse (2019). Along the way he has posted these stats:

2018 Clemson: 27 G, 38.1 IP, 1.41 ERA, 1.148 WHIP, 12.7 K/9
2018 Brooklyn: 17 G, 17.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 1.385 WHIP, 16.1 K/9
2019 St. Lucie: 7 G, 10.2 IP, 2.53 ERA, 0.938 WHIP, 13.5 K/9
2019 Binghamton: 12 G, 18.2 IP, 4.34 ERA, 1.179 WHIP, 13.5 K/9
2019 Syracuse: 10 G, 9.1 IP, 13.50 ERA, 3.000 WHIP, 11.6 K/9
2019 Arizona Fall League: 7 G, 9.1 IP, 0.96 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 10.6 K/9

With the exception of Syracuse, he’s performed well at every single level, which is astounding considering how much he had to uproot his life in the last two years to play in so many places. Also encouraging – after a rough stint in Syracuse, he went on to dominate in the Arizona Fall League.

Gilliam has a 95-97 fastball and a high 70’s/ low 80’s curveball and the two pitch combination has allowed him to mow down the competition in the minors. If he starts off in Syracuse ripping through lineups like he was at other levels last year, than we will probably see him in Queens sooner than later (around when the first set of relievers start to falter or get injured). If not, I expect him to be in Syracuse for most of the season. Gilliam is still young and has less years in the Mets system than someone like yesterday’s NRI Preview Matt Blackham and the won’t feel pressure about Gilliam on the roster like they would for other rule V eligible players at the end of the season.

Gilliam of course can write his own story this spring. He’ll get a look at Triple A, Major League and inbetween talent. The Mets will be looking at what progress he made this off-season.

This is the second year where we are walking through the previous season’s Baseball America’s Top Prospect handbook, looking at the all the Mets to see how they are developing against Baseball America’s Projections.

Luis Guillorme, who became a household name a few years ago in spring training by catching a bat with one hand, got more playing time last year and we were thrilled here at 213. We agree with BA that Luis “is the best defensive infielder int he system, with quick reflexes and sure hands that make him reliable at second, third or short.” For Luis the question has always been can he hit at the major league level, and since he doesn’t hit for power, can he continue to spray the ball all over the place and be a consistent hitter. In 2019 we saw improvements towards that:

2018: 35 G, 74 PA, .209/.284/.239, .523 OPS
2019: 45 G, 70 PA, .246/.324/.361, .684 OPS

Significant progress. His playing time was still played around with, much like it was during his time in 2018. With the continued injury to Jed Lowrie we are hoping that Luis gets more time as a utility infielder on the Mets. A good spring and he could possibly break the club with the team. The fear is that he has another year of the Mets sending him up and down, not getting consistent reps at the major league level.