213 Miles From Shea

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

Rene Rivera, who only had a cup of coffee with the Mets last off-season, is back in camp on a NRI deal to try to break onto the roster and get to Queens. He’ll need to play better than Tomas Nido. Rivera is the most likely candidate to upset Nido for his roster spot, although that is quite unlikely. What is likely though – Rene coming to Queens at some point this season. Unless the Mets need a long term roster fill in that would cause the promotion of someone like Ali Sanchez, Rivera should be the next one to get that call.

2019 Stats: 20 PA, 17 AB, HR, .235/.350/.412, -0.1 WAR, 91 DRC+

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

I think it’s highly unlikely that Rivera makes any of his playing time numbers, but his slash line seems like a safe prediction for him. His OPS projection is a solid 50 points better than Nido’s heading into the season. It feels like something bad has to happen to the Mets first for Rivera to see any sort of substantial playing time in 2020.

Each year at 213 we look through the Non-Roster Invitees to spring training and get to know them a bit. Are they in camp to get a look at big league hitting/pitching to aid their development? Are the Mets just trying to get a better look at a future rookie? Are they a veteran trying to get back to the major league level? What can we expect from them this season?

There are some baseball players that seem destined to become Mets. Generally it’s due to someone in the organization liking them, failing to acquire them in a trade and then failing to acquire them in free agency. At that point the self-fulfilling prophecy is born that this player is going to be a Met at the twilight of their career.

We actually wrote an article after the 2017 off-season about Eduardo Nunez because we were that sure that the Mets were going to be that cheap that he was going to be signed. It was between him, Reyes, Cabrera, Frazier and Harrison. You can read it here. The Mets surprised us and went with Frazier and at the time we weren’t completely down on the idea of Nunez. He just seemed inevitable and unexciting. But since then he has seen major regression in hitting:

2017: 491 PA, .313/.341/.460
2018: 502 PA, .265/.289/.388
2019: 174 PA, .228/.243/.305

It’s been a steep fall for Nunez recently. To make the team he needs to play well enough in Spring that he gets a 40-man spot and somehow edges out Luis Guillorme who should see regular time as a back up infielder, the spot Nunez is going for. Nunez’s career is declining, and he had a lot of success. The Mets tend to have a thing for playing aging middle infielders with declining hitting abilities more than they should, and it would be a shame for Guillorme to have to step aside for Nunez.

I’m going to be optimistic here, outside of a terrific spring that surprises everyone, I think Guillorme holds onto his spot on the bench and even if he doesn’t, I don’t think it’s going to happen due to Nunez.

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

Last season was a weird one for Tomas Nido. He wasn’t supposed to be the back up catcher, that was supposed to be Travis d’Arnaud. But that failed, and then the whole situation with Mesoraco failed and the Mets were left with Nido. Nido had the opportunity for a second season in a row to make his name known but he didn’t do with his bat.

Now he was preferred by multiple pitchers who requested that Nido catch them. And that’s great for Nido and is going to be a theme going into this season. The problem is he had such a bad season at the plate with a -0.7 WAR and a DRC+ that made him 42% worse than the average hitter in the league.

2019 Stats: 144 PA, 136 AB, 4 HR, .191/.231/.316, -0.7 WAR, 58 DRC+

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

The Mets did not go out to get another catcher and the catchers in camp are not going to give Nido a tremendous run for his money. If Nido can be better than Rene Rivera and David Rodriguez, then he’ll be on the team next year.

For what it’s worth, the computer programs see Nido taking a positive. Not a tremendous one, but they do have him breaking the .600 OPS plane which is huge. He’s not the worst behind the plate, he’s better than the other options the Mets have and it was clear from about the middle of the off-season on that the Mets weren’t going to try to replace him so here we are going into 2019 with Nido backing up Ramos.

The Mets play the Astros again today. How surprising.

Anyway, the Mets finally picked up their second win of Spring yesterday as they rounded out their first full week playing baseball this year. Highlights so far have included two positive starts by Porcello, Brad Brach looking good in outings so far, Gimenez showing hitting skills in addition to flashing leather and Brandon Nimmo exclaiming to the camera “sun ball double!”.

Yesterday’s Reacap:

As mentioned earlier, the Mets actually won a game yesterday! It was the second straight game for the Mets where no one collected two hits. Gimenez had the biggest hit of the game, a homer that would end up being the deciding run. This is after he roped a double the night before – really positive signs. Mazeika who came in to DH after Cano went 1-2 with a double, his third double of the spring as he continues to have a quiet, strong start to 2020. His small sample size OPS is 1.570 right now.

On the mound Stroman gave up a homer, his only real blemish in 2.0 innings of work. He was followed up by a clean inning of relief from Blackham, a Familia inning of no runs but a hit and a walk (so in character), a clean inning with two strikeouts from from Zamora, a clean inning from Sewald and a shutout inning for Gilliam. Gilliam has had a rough week so it was nice to see him successful.

On the Mound Today:

Steven Matz makes his second start this spring. He’s competing with Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello for a roster spot. Porcello has already had 2 starts where he has allowed 1 run over 3.0 innings and Wacha was also impressive in his Spring debut. Matz allowed a solo homer and that’s it in his first inning of work last weekend. We expect to see him out there for about 2.0 innings today.

After Matz today is a prospect lover’s dream lineup. David Peterson, Franklyn Kilome and Jordan Humphreys are all scheduled to pitch today. Peterson allowed a hit and nothing in else in his spring training debut this week. Kilome’s did not got as well, allowed two runs off two hits, including a homer in his first inning of work. Humphreys allowed 1 run off two hits in his first spring inning also.

There’s a lot to watch for today! Let’s Go Mets!

Each year at 213 we look through the Non-Roster Invitees to spring training and get to know them a bit. Are they in camp to get a look at big league hitting/pitching to aid their development? Are the Mets just trying to get a better look at a future rookie? Are they a veteran trying to get back to the major league level? What can we expect from them this season?

Yesterday we previewed Jake Hager, who has already been assigned to Syracuse and hasn’t made it to the majors yet. He plays up the middle and at third base. Today’s NRI, Max Moroff, plays the same position with slightly more major league playing experience, getting into 56 games back in 2017 and about 20 or so games each year since. Tomorrow’s NRI preview for Eduardo Nunez is more the typical NRI-veteran trying to get back into the game.

Moroff was drafted by the Pirates in the 16th round in 2012, made his debut with the Pirates and stayed with them until after the 2012 season when he was traded with Jordan Luplow to the Indians for Erik Gonzalez and two minor league players. Max Moroff has not yet found success with his bat at the major league level:

2017 Pirates: 56 G, 140 PA, 120 AB, 3 HR, .200/.302/.325
2018 Pirates: 26 G, 67 PA, 59 AB, 3 HR, .186/.284/.356
2019 Indians: 20 G, 35 PA, 32 AB, 1 HR, .125/.176/.250

Max Moroff hasn’t found much hitting success in AAA either hitting .231/.364/.394 across four seasons. Unlike Hager who’s troubles in AAA bounced him between AAA/AA, Moroff has pretty much stayed in AAA since after he passed AA ball, his last really successful hitting season at .293/.374/.409.

Max Moroff is in camp to round out Syracuse’s roster so the Mets don’t have to rush any infielders lower in the system. His experience with major league hitting makes him an interesting, although not appealing option, if the Mets really need to dig for a player in their system for a roster spot. Most likely he and Hager will slot behind Eduardo Nunez in the depth list.

You know it’s Spring Training for the Mets if they’re playing the Cardinals, Astros, Nationals and Marlins ad nauseam. The Cardinals come to St. Lucie this afternoon and the Mets are still looking for their second (meaningless) win of Spring.

About Last Night:

The Marlins beat the Mets last night in the Mets first night game of Spring Training, improving the Marlins record to 6-0. For the Mets bats it was a pretty forgettable game. The Mets sprayed 6 hits with no player gathering two. That being said Alonso, Nunez and Gimenez all hit doubles in yesterday’s game. Gimenez’s left his hat at over 100 mph, so that’s always nice to see.

Whenever Porcello pitches, he’s the story. The back end of the rotation is the only true position battle the Mets have this year and he followed up his debut last weekend (1 run on 2 hits in an inning) with two shutout innings, while striking out 2 and allowing 2 hits. Brad Brach and Robert Gsellman followed up with perfect innings of relief each. The former with a bullpen spot locked up and the latter trying to break back in. Oswalt allowed a run on 3 hits in in 2.0 innings, he’s also competing for a spot on the depth chart for long relief/emergency starter.

On the Mound Today:

The Mets will open the game today with two regulars trying to get their work in – Marcus Stroman and Jeurys Familia. Stroman allowed 1 run on 2 hits in 1.2 innings with a walk and 2 strikeouts in his debut last weekend. Familia, coming off of an awful 2019, had a good start to spring allowing a hit and a run but not allowing anyone to score in his 1.0 inning of work.

Stroman and Familia will be followed by Matt Blackham, Paul Sewald, Pedro Payano, Erasimo Ramirez and Daniel Zamora. Sewald and Zamora both have roster spots currently but are both competing to be the last pitcher in the bullpen. Everyone else listed is in camp as a Non-Roster Invitee.

Mets Lineup:

1. Jeff McNeil
2. Brandon Nimmo
3. Robinson Cano
4. Wilson Ramos
5. Dominic Smith
6. Amed Rosario
7. Ryan Cordell
8. Jake Hager
9. Tim Tebow

Brandon Nimmo is back in the lineup! He’s been out for a few days with some additional medical screening that his wife went to Twitter to explain that nothing was actually wrong (reassuring because the Mets have no idea how control a narrative). It’s interesting to note that this is the third time in the first week of games that McNeil is hitting before Nimmo in the lineup.

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

So this article was written on 2/21 and hopefully Dominic Smith is still a Met at that point. You have to feel bad for Dominic Smith last season. He had a tremendous spring training last year, but Pete Alonso had a better one. He had a great season until he broke his leg. He then comes back and has the last Mets AB of the season, launching a walk off homer into the night to send the Mets into 2020.

Does it seem like Dominic Smith was better than the average player last year? Well according to Baseball Prospectus, he was! By 12%. The question going into this season is how can the Mets get him more playing time. There are five outfielders fighting for 3 spots plus third base and he’s blocked by Alonso. If I had to pick one player in particular that is blocking Smith at this point, I would go with Robinson Cano. If Cano is not on the team, then Jeff McNeil is starting at 2nd, Davis at 3rd. and now Smith can get consistent time in the outfield.

2019 Stats: 197 PA, 177 AB, 11 HR, .282/.355/.525, 0.7 WAR, 112 DRC+

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

The projection programs have Dominic Smith having another solid year. They don’t think his .500+ slugging is sustainable, and they are all over the place when it comes to playing time, but they see him as have a successful season even with regression. What I do find surprising is the range of WAR. They have him from a negative WAR to the same WAR he had last year.

We support Smith here and hope he gets gets more playing time, somehow.

Each year at 213 we look through the Non-Roster Invitees to spring training and get to know them a bit. Are they in camp to get a look at big league hitting/pitching to aid their development? Are the Mets just trying to get a better look at a future rookie? Are they a veteran trying to get back to the major league level? What can we expect from them this season?

As we start to wind down the NRI list, it looks like the Mets went for a different type of player this year. In years past they went for experienced veterans at the end of their careers (and there is still some of that) Jake Hager joins other players on this list on an NRI who never made the majors with their former teams who are still youngish. Whether this is intentional to try to find something in these players that their original club lost, less veteran players on the market or players staying away from the Mets because of the Mesoraco situation last year is still an unknown.

Hager plays middle infield and third base for the Mets, an area where they could use a little more upper minors depth. Hopefully Hager on an NRI here paints a picture that Luis Guillorme, in camp as a member of the roster finally, has an inside track to the bench, but we won’t know that for a couple more weeks.

Hager is a former first round pick by the Rays (32nd pick) in the 2011 draft of Sierra Vista High School in Las Vegas. He has played in and out of AAA ball since 2016. After the 2017 season he elected free agency and signed with the Brewers and continued this AA/AAA dance for another two seasons. When you look at his slash lines you can see why. In three seasons in AA ball he’s hit .270/.323/.406 and in four seasons at AAA he’s hit .237/.286/.361. He just hasn’t made the next step at the AAA level, which has blocked him from the majors.

Hager has already been assigned to Syracuse and is fairly down the depth chart for the Mets. If push comes to shove this season the Mets will essentially have to decide on pulling Hager or Eduardo Nunez to the 40 man and the active roster or calling up someone like Gimenez. We assume this will come down to how much regular playing time will be needed by the player. If it’s regular, it’s Andres Gimenez time in Queens. If it’s not, then maybe it’s Guillorme’s show with Hager or Nunez backing him up.

The Mets are still on the hunt for their second win this spring as they travel to Jupiter to take on the Marlins in the ultra-rare night Spring Training Game during the first full week of Spring Training games.

What Happened Yesterday?

The Mets dropped their first of several games against the Astros. Noah Syndergaard got the Mets off to a good start in his first Spring outing, allowing just a hit in 2.0 innings of work where he struck out two. Justin Wilson followed him with a clean inning and then things fell apart for the highly anticipated debut of Edwin Diaz. Diaz allowed 2 runs off 3 hits in 1.0 innings. He had a tough spring last year as well with a 8+ ERA so hopefully he can get a clean inning together his next time out.

Ryan Cordell who made a spot start for Brandon Nimmo made the most of his opportunity yesterday, going 2-4 with a homer, bringing his spring batting average to .364 and OPS to 1.090. He was the only Met to have two hits yesterday and the only Met to hit an extra base hit.

Battle For the Rotation Continues

I’ve been under the impression that Matz had the 4th spot in the rotation locked down and Porcello and Wacha were battling for the 5th spot. Michael Wacha when talking to reporters says he expects to spot. The Mets in general have leaked this idea of letting Matz and Wacha flip in and out of the rotation depending on match-ups, which makes Porcello the #4 starter. Porcello will make his second start of Spring Training. In his first start he allowed 1 run off two hits in 1 inning of work. We assume he’ll get between 2-3 innings today.

Mets Lineup:

1. Eduardo Nunez
2. Michael Conforto
3. Pete Alonso (DH)
4. Matt Adams
5. Jake Marisnick
6. Luis Guillorme
7. Tomas Nido
8. Jarrett Parker
9. Max Moroff

Eduardo Nunez is seeing quite a bit of playing time as he tries to break camp on the Mets roster. The main player in his way is Luis Guillorme who has had a fantastic spring with the glove (and just so you know my biases, whenever I try to make a roster for the Mets in 2020, Guillorme is on it). The combination of this being a road and night game severely limits the amount of major league regulars that are on this trip, so we’ll get a good look today at members of the 40-man roster not yet slated for an active roster spot and non-roster invitees tonight.

Let’s Go Mets!

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

Amed Rosario took a massive step forward last year. At the start of the season his defense was horrible, but as the season went on he got better and better, the same thing happened with his bat. If use DRC+ as metric of Rosario compared to the rest of the league, he started off 31% worse than the average player, then 17% and last year only 4%. Hopefully next year is the year that he pushes forward into better than average, so let’s take a look.

2019 Stats: 655 PA, 616 AB, 15 HR, .287/.323/.432, 1.8 WAR, 96 DRC+

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

If you are more into WAR than DRC+, he has gone 0.2, 0.5 and then 1.8. The projections that handle WAR seem to think he will have as good or better season than he did last year. Steamer is super into him putting him at 2.4 WAR. Both Steamer and Baseball Reference (more notable for their conservative nature in projections) have him slugging above .420. ZiPS sees him getting on base at the same pace as he has.

The Mets have a good amount of sluggers on the team. They also have a good amount of people who get on base a lot. What they need is someone who is a decent hitter (Rosario is that) who fields consistently (hopefully working towards that). So lets see what Rosario can do! There are several short stop prospects waiting in the wings, immediately with Andres Gimenez, but there’s no evidence that they will, right now in 2020, hit better than Rosario.