213 Miles From Shea

Nate Lavender is back with the Mets!

Lavender had back-to-back dominant seasons in the minor leagues for the Mets in 2022 and 2023. In 2022 Lavender had a 1.70 ERA, 1.217 WHIP with a 12.7 K/9 over 47 2/3 innings between St. Lucie and Brooklyn. In 2023 he had a 2.98 ERA, 1.196 WHIP with a 14.2 K/9 over 54 1/3 innings between Binghamton and Syracuse.

Lavender’s strong 2023 across Double A and Triple A finally landed him on MLB.com Pipeline’s Top 30 Mets prospects (#24) heading into the 2024 season. His 2024 scouting report touted his reverse splits, and his three-quarter slot. He would use his low-90’s fastball to set up his high-70’s changeup. He seemed destined to make his major league debut at some point during the 2024 season. The Mets were starved for left-handed relief in 2024, a season where Danny Young and Jake Diekman lead lefty relief innings pitched.

Unfortunately, Nate Lavender required internal brace surgery in May 2024, sidelining him for the rest of the season. At the time, it was assumed he would return at some point during the 2025 season. The Mets left him unprotected in the December 2024 Rule V draft and the Rays picked him up. They liked what they saw from Lavender over the last few seasons enough to hold onto him through the rest of his recovery time. Lavender wasn’t able to move forward in his rehab in 2025 and didn’t pitch in any minor leagues game last season.

Because Nate Lavender was injured the entire season in 2025, he actually kept his Rule V status. The Rays DFA’d him, he cleared waivers and was returned to the Mets in November. The Mets left him unprotected again but this time he was able to slip through without getting selected.

The path forward for Lavender is uncertain. He’s lost more than a season and a half of playing time. There are things that are still the same though. The Mets lefty relief situation still leaves a lot to be desired. Brooks Raley is back after the Mets exercised his club option at the end of 2025. It is unclear right now if A.J. Minter will be able to start the season healthy. The Mets traded for Bryan Hudson for lefty depth. Outside of Lavender, the only other lefties in camp on NRI’s are Joe Jacques, Anderson Severino, Matt Turner and Brandon Waddell.

Hopefully Nate Lavender has an uneventful spring training and is able to reestablish himself on the mound. The next step from there is to get more reps under his belt at Syracuse. With the Mets recent injury track record with pitchers, there is a significant chance the Mets will call on him at some point this season. There was a genuine buzz around him in 2024, fingers crossed we get to feel that buzz for him again in 2026.

The Mets aspirations in 2026 fall on their pitching lab. Over the last couple of years they have parted with former top prospects (Dom Hamel, Mike Vasil, etc) partially because of the of the belief that they can help more pitchers take that next step in their development.

Jack Wenninger hopes to be one of those pitchers this year, going from prospect to top-prospect.

The Mets drafted Wenninger in the 6th round back in 2023 out of the University of Illinois. The 6’4″ right hander struggled in his first season of college ball, posting a 5.26 ERA over 51 1/3 innings at Murray State. He found more success the next season after transferring, with a 4.59 ERA over 80 1/3 innings

Wenninger started to put things together with the Mets in 2024. He had a 4.30 ERA over 115 innings with 140 strikeouts. His 1.278 WHIP was in the same ballpark as his 1.207 WHIP during his season with Illinois. It was his strikeout rate that took a jump from 8.0 K/9 in college to 11.0. If 2024 was a step forward, 2025 was a leap forward. Wenninger had a 2.92 ERA over 135 2/3 innings in Binghamton with his best MILB WHIP at 1.150.

According to his scouting report, Wenninger throws a low-90’s fastball and pairs it with a low-80’s splitter, all from the three-quarters arm slot. He also mixes in a sweeper, cutter and curveball. After a full year in Binghamton, he’s probably heading to Syracuse this season. There is more reliable Statcast data in Triple A, and hopefully we can get easier access to data about his specific pitches.

For Wenninger to make the majors in 2026, two things have to happen. First, he needs to continue the success that he saw in Binghamton last year in Syracuse against stronger opponents. Second, enough has to go wrong for the Mets at the major league level to create the opening. The Mets did set a record for pitchers used last season at 46 and recreated their rotation with rookies on the fly at the end of the season. Hopefully if the Mets call on him, its because his performance in Syracuse demands it, not because of roster crisis.

Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat and Nolan McLean were the three Mets pitchers I was most excited to watch during the 2025 spring training games. It felt like taking a glimpse at the future of the team. Wenninger could be part of that future too!

Kevin Parada is still with the Mets.

That wasn’t a given in 2026. The Mets left Parada off of the 40-man roster in December, leaving him vulnerable in the Rule V draft. Even though Parada hasn’t developed in the way that a lot of scouts originally projected, leaving a former first round pick vulnerable in the Rule V draft is a risky move. Ultimately other teams passed on Parada and he enters camp battling to get on the Mets roster as their third catching option.

The Mets drafted Parada 11th overall in 2022 out of Georgia Tech. Parada was coming off of an absurd collegiate season slashing .360/.452/.709 over 305 plate appearances. He then played 13 games in the Mets system, split between rookie and low-A ball slashing .275/.455/.425. His ability to get on based turned heads with the major baseball publications naming him a top-100 prospect before the 2023 season:

• Baseball America #50
• Major League Baseball #36
• Baseball Prospectus #64

With Francisco Alvarez making his major league debut in 2022, the Mets didn’t have to rush Parada’s development. Parada was largely successful the next season at Brooklyn (High A) slashing .265/.340/.447. Not as head turning as his previous season, but still solid hitting for a catcher. A late season promotion to Binghamton became a harbinger. Parada only hit .185/.250/.389 over 60 plate appearances. He spent all of 2024 in Binghamton and did a bit better hitting .214/.304/.359.

Two things happened in 2025 that set the stage for Parada to have an opportunity in 2026. Parada had a largely successful stint with Binghamton slashing .254/.326/.429. Meanwhile, the Mets had their catching depth tested and needed to rely on Hayden Senger. Senger, drafted in 2018, filled a need for the Mets, but fell short with his bat. Senger ended the season playing in 33 games getting 78 plate appearances with a 20 OPS+. He is currently on the 40-man roster as the Mets third catcher.

If Parada can get off to a hot start in spring, and put together a solid campaign in Syracuse, he could make a case to eventually get on the 40-man roster. After Alvarez and Torrens the Mets depth chart right now is probably Senger, Austin Barnes (NRI) then Kevin Parada. Injuries to catching depth across the league will dictate if Austin Barnes stays with the Mets by the end of spring training, but that’s a conversation for a future NRI preview.

Behind Parada on the depth chart is 21-year old Chris Suero who made it to Binghamton last season after putting up an .837 OPS in 301 plate appearances in Brooklyn. Suero is too far away from the majors right now to leap frog Parada in a short term 40-man roster stint. It feels like the conditions are set for Parada to make it on the 40-man roster at some point this season. Can the former top prospect seize the opportunity when it arrives?

Daniel Duarte has spent most of the winter being unhittable. The 29-year old righty absolutely tore up the Mexican Winter League over 25 games (24 innings) with a 0.00 ERA. He allowed only ten hits, four walks and one unearned run while striking out 23 batters. That’s good for a 0.583 WHIP and a 3.8 H/9. In a couple of weeks we’ll see if his strong winter will carry over to the spring!

The Mets signed Duarte to a minor league deal with a non-roster invite in mid-December. Duarte hasn’t pitched in the majors since a season ending elbow surgery in May 2024 that caused him to miss all of 2025. Before his surgery he pitched 38 1/3 innings in the majors with a 3.99 ERA, 6.11 FIP, and 1.383 WHIP. In 2023 he pitched in 31 games for the Reds allowing five homers over 31 2/3 innings, leading to a 5.84 FIP. He’s a groundball pitcher, inducing grounders 50% of the time back in 2023. Before Duarte’s surgery he tossed a mid-90’s four seamer and sinker. He also mixed in a low-90’s cutter, low-90’s changeup and a low-to-mid-80’s slider.

Duarte will represent Mexico in the World Baseball Classic. Mexico is in a group with the United States, Great Britain and Italy. That’s not a ton of opportunities for innings against great hitters. Duarte’s winter begs the question about what will happen when he faces more major league hitters. Will the Mets use him early enough in games the last week of February so he faces major league hitters before going off to the WBC?

It is difficult for NRI pitchers to break camp with the Mets given their current roster construction and some of the other pitchers in camp on NRI deals. The Mets did set a record in 2025 with 46 different pitchers used in a single season. If he sticks with the Mets after spring training, we’ll probably see him on the major league roster at some point in 2026.

It all comes down to the last game of the season for the Mets. A loss today completely knocks the Mets out of the playoffs. A win is not enough, the Reds will need to lose too as they hold the tiebreaker. Saturday the Mets got one of the best performances they have all season from Clay Holmes, negating the need to have a piggy-back start with Sean Manaea, pushing him to start the final game of the season. Buckle up!

Sean Manaea has pitched 59 innings over 14 games this season with a 5.80 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 1.220 WHIP and a 70 ERA+. His last two outings haven’t been great. Manaea has allowed five runs from six hits over four innings, including two homers. In fact, he’s allowed 13 home runs this season, seven in September alone. The Marlins have the following career stats against him:

• Xavier Edwards 2-4, 2B, BB
• Otto Lopez 3-8, 2B, K
• Joey Wiemer 1-2, K

Is Edward Cabrera making his last start as a Marlin this afternoon? Cabrera made his debut for the Marlins in 2021 and is arbitration eligible in 2026. The Marlins are somewhat unpredictable with trades, and he could be a trade candidate, especially since he doesn’t become a free agent until 2029.

Anyway this season he has pitched 132 2/3 innings over 25 starts, the most in his career, with a 3.66 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.221 WHIP and a 121 ERA+. Cabrera started against the Mets at the end of August allowing six runs, five earned from eight hits over four innings and then landed on the injured list after that start. He came back on the 23rd, pitching four innings allowing three runs from five hits. The Mets have the following career stats against him:

• Pete Alonso 5-17, 3 HR, 4 BB, 5 K
• Francisco Alvarez 1-2, K
• Francisco Lindor 3-17, HR, 4 BB, 3 K
• Starling Marte 0-1, BB
• Ronny Mauricio 1-2, K
• Jeff McNeil 3-16, 2B, HR, BB, K
• Cedric Mullins 1-5, BB
• Brandon Nimmo 5-14, 2B, 7 BB, 3 K
• Juan Soto 1-7, HR, 2 BB, K
• Tyrone Taylor 1-5, 2 K
• Luis Torrens 0-2, K
• Mark Vientos 3-6, HR, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Francisco Lindor. One of my strongest and fondest memories of Francisco Lindor in 2024 came on the last day of the season. The Mets needed to go to Atlanta to play a doubleheader. The first game was a back-and-forth affair with Francisco Lindor completing the final comeback for the Mets, smashing a home run sending the team to Milwaukee for the Wild Card series. The Mets need that Francisco Lindor this afternoon!
2. Pete Alonso. There is a chance today is Pete Alonso’s last game as a Met. He can walk out of the deal at the end of this season. The Mets all-time home run leader came through for the Mets on Saturday going 2-for-4 with a double, a home run and two RBI’s. He was a post season hero for the Mets last year and we’ll need him again today.
3. Wild Card race. The Mets need the Reds to lose today. The Reds will be taking on a Brewers team that has home field advantage through the NLCS all wrapped up, but is also about to have multiple days off. Brady Singer (3.95 ERA) will take on Freddy Peralta (2.68 ERA). The Mets still have to win this afternoon, and with all games starting at 3:10, there will be scoreboard watching throughout the afternoon.

Let’s Go Mets!

A rough night for the Mets means the pressure is on today. The Reds now control their own destiny with two games left to play this season. The Mets got the scoring started last night, thanks to another leadoff homer from Francisco Lindor but fell apart shortly after and just couldn’t come back. The Marlins in September have burned the Mets since 2007, is this another chapter in that book, or can the Mets flip the script today?

Clay Holmes gets the start today for the Mets. Over 159 2/3 innings he has a 3.66 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.328 WHIP and a 110 ERA+. He’s been used in relief the last two outings totaling 4 2/3 innings allowing one unearned run scattering four hits and striking out three. The Marlins scored four, two earned over five innings at the end of August and the have the following career numbers against him:

• Griffin Conine 3-4, 2 BB, K
• Xavier Edwards 2-8, K
• Heriberto Hernandez 0-2, K
• Liam Hicks 3-7, 2 K
• Troy Johnston 1-3
• Otto Lopez 3-8, 2B, K, BB
• Jakob Marsee 1-3
• Graham Pauley 0-4, 3 K
• Agustin Ramirez 0-2, K
• Javier Sanoja 1-4, 3 K
• Eric Wagaman 0-2

Eury Pérez will set a career high in starts and innings pitched today. He has made 19 starts this season with 90 innings tossed. He has a 4.20 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 1.044 WHIP and a 105 ERA+. Pérez hasn’t allowed a run in his last two starts (Rockies and Rangers), scattering three hits over nine innings while striking out 15 batters. The Mets scorched him though last month, scoring five runs in 2/3rds of an inning. This was the game the Mets eventually won 19-9. The Mets have the following career stats against Pérez:

• Pete Alonso 1-2, K
• Brett Baty 0-2, K
• Francisco Lindor 0-2, BB
• Starling Marte 0-1
• Ronny Mauricio 1-1, BB
• Jeff McNeil 0-1, BB
• Cedric Mullins 1-2, K
• Brandon Nimmo 2-2, HR, BB
• Juan Soto 1-1, HR
• Tyrone Taylor 1-2, 2B, K
• Mark Vientos 1-1, HR, BB

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Sean Manaea. Will the Mets use Sean Manaea today? Manaea pitched on the 24th against the Cubs (1 IP, 2 ER) and should be good to go today. It’s been a rough year for Manaea who has pitched 59 innings with a 5.80 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 1.220 WHIP and a 70 ERA+. It has been a while since the Mets got a long start from Clay Holmes and we’ve seen the piggy-back start work recently.
2. Dylan Ross. The Mets need bullpen help for these final two games of the season and have called up Dylan Ross. Ross is working his way back from two UCL injuries. He was drafted by the Mets in the 13th round back in 2022. Across Syracuse, Binghamton and Brooklyn this season he has pitched 54 innings with a 2.17 ERA, 1.148 WHIP and a 13.3 K/9.
3. Wild Card race. The Mets play first today, and set the tone. A win and the pressure is on the Reds to keep their Wild Card spot. A Mets loss and the Reds can end it for the Mets tonight. The Reds will be sending out Abbott (2.80 ERA) take on Gasser of the Brewers (6.00 ERA). It’s a must win day for the Mets.

Bonus: Juan Soto stats. Juan Soto stole two bases in Friday night’s game. He’s now only two stolen bases away from a 40-40 season. He is also still only two walks away from breaking the Mets single season walk record set by John Olerud in 1999 (125 walks).

Let’s Go Mets!

The pressure was on the Mets Thursday night. They already knew before first pitch that the Reds had barely beaten the Pirates 2-1. The Mets would need to leave Thursday in order to keep control of their destiny.

And win they did! The Mets would eventually get a 6-0 lead thanks to big home runs from Francisco Lindor and Brett Baty. Nolan McLean was cruising until he hit some bumps in the sixth inning, and the Cubs were able to get the score a bit closer (8-5). After that the Mets bullpen was able to shut things down and hold on. The Mets magic number is three, they just need to win out. Standing in their way is a Miami Marlins team that has won seven of their last ten games and would love to just ruin the Mets parade.

Brandon Sproat has made three starts this season allowing seven runs from 13 hits over 16 innings, good for a small-sample-size 3.94 ERA, 2.39 FIP, 1.188 WHIP and a 104 ERA+. The Nationals were able to tag Sproat for four runs in his last start and tonight will be his first start against the Marlins. His fastball averages nearly 96 mph and is already in the 75th percentile for velocity. According to statcast his fastball has also been a bit unlucky so far with a .316 BA compared to a .270 xBA, .474 SLG compared to a .322 xSLG, and a .410 wOBA compared to a .348 xwOBA.

The Mets bats will try to get the weekend started against Sandy Alcantara. Over 30 starts this season Alcantara has pitched 167 2/3 innings with a 5.48 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 1.276 WHIP and an 81 ERA+. Alcantara went on a run over the last four starts in August with a 1.67 ERA, 2.62 FIP over 27 innings while striking out 29 batters. This includes a start against the Mets where he allowed only one run over seven innings. He’s come back down to Earth in September with a 4.12 ERA, 4.51 FIP over three starts and 19 2/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Luisangel Acuña 1-2, 2B
• Pete Alonso 5-37, 3 2B, HR, 2 BB, 9 K
• Brett Baty 0-3, K
• Francisco Lindor 9-30, 2 2B, HR, 3 BB, 4 K
• Starling Marte 5-16, 2 3B, HR, BB, 4 K
• Jeff McNeil 12-37, 2 2B, HR, 3 BB, 3 K
• Cedric Mullins 4-9, 2 HR, K
• Brandon Nimmo 5-34, 2 2B, HR, 5 BB, 8 K
• Juan Soto 12-43, 2B,2 HR, 6 BB, 6 K
• Tyrone Taylor 0-6, 2 K
• Luis Torrens 0-2, K
• Mark Vientos 0-4, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. The big hitters in the lineup. The Mets beat the Cubs 8-5 on Wednesday with the top four hitters in the Mets lineup (Lindor, Soto, Alonso and Vientos) going a combined 2-for-17 with a home run). Lindor reached base twice, but it was pretty quiet behind him. Nimmo in the five spot had three hits and the Mets were buoyed by big nights from Baty and Taylor. If the Mets are going to have a successful night, they are going to need their best hitters to show up tonight.
2. Tyrone Taylor. What a couple of games for the Mets x-factor. When he returned to the field on Wednesday he immediately made an amazing play throwing out a runner at home in the first inning. Wednesday night he went 2-for-4 with a massive two-run double that gave the Mets an 8-2 lead, which ended up being critical with the mini-Mets meltdown that followed in the next inning.
3. Wild Card race. The Reds will face the Brewers this weekend. The Brewers have the first round bye already clinched and is trying to clinch home field advantage through the NLCS this weekend before they take a few days off. Quinn Priester (3.25 ERA) will take on Littell (3.86 ERA) of the Reds. The Diamondbacks window to the Wild Card got a smaller on Thursday with their lost to the Dodgers. Tonight Zac Gallen (4.70 ERA) pitches to keep that window slightly open against Darvish (5.51 ERA) and the Padres.

Let’s Go Mets!

If the Mets make the playoffs, they’ll need to buy the Pirates a beer or something.

The Mets had a sloppy 10-3 loss on Wednesday, but they are still in control of their own destiny. The Dodgers beat the Diamondbacks. The Pirates beat the Reds in 11 innings, a game where the Reds came back multiple times. Wednesday night was a cycle of “we’re so back / it’s so over / we’re so back”, and that seems like the only constant this week.

Nolan McLean has emerged as the most reliable starter on Mets staff, even though he has only started seven games pitching a total of 42 2/3 innings. He has a 1.27 ERA, 2.41 FIP, 1.008 WHIP and a 321 ERA+. He has allowed only two earned runs in his last three starts totaling 16 1/3 innings (1.10 ERA, 2.41 FIP) while striking out 18 batters. This will be his first start against the Chicago Cubs.

Shota Imanaga has made 24 starts in his second major league season totaling 139 innings with a 3.37 ERA, 4.77 FIP, 0.957 WHIP and a 115 ERA+. Imanaga has been incredibly consistent in his last five starts allowing three earned runs in each start. Over his last 29 innings he has a 4.66 ERA and a 6.38 FIP allowing 10 home runs over that stretch. The Mets have the following career stats against Imanaga:

• Pete Alonso 1-5, 2B, 3 K
• Francisco Alvarez 1-2, HR, K
• Brett Baty 0-2
• Francisco Lindor 2-4, 2 2B
• Starling Marte 1-5, K
• Jeff McNeil 2-3
• Brandon Nimmo 2-2, HR, K
• Tyrone Taylor 1-3, K
• Mark Vientos 0-2

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Under-the-hood McLean. Nolan McLean is causing whiff’s, racking up strikeouts and generating groundballs. He has a 27.9 K% and 28.0 Whiff%. Hitters are barreling him only 5.8% of the time and he has a sky high 63.1% groundball rate. This has led to great results, as long as the Mets can field behind him, which has been a question of late.
2. Mets Homers. Home runs has been an issue for Imanaga this year, allowing 29 of them this season, two more than his rookie season despite making five less starts. This explains the discrepancy between his FIP and his WHIP. As we discussed early, 10 homers have come in his last five starts. Heading into play today the Mets are tied with the Angels for fourth in the league with 220 home runs, already far surpassing 2025’s 207 homers.
3. Lindor & Soto. Francisco Lindor is one home run away from his second 30-30 season. When the Mets needed Lindor most on Tuesday he led the game off with his 29th homer. Juan Soto is one walk away from matching John Olerud’s 1999 Mets franchise record 125 walks. He’s also currently leading the league with a .399 OBP. The Mets are going to need their two best hitters to carry the team in these last few games of the season.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets are back in control of their own destiny! The Mets got the night started off with a bang on Tuesday with Francisco Lindor leading off of the game with a home run. The Cubs pretty much immediately bounced back scoring five runs, just suppressing the vibes. But the Mets fought back! First to make it 6-6, then to take a 7-6 lead. The Cubs would eventually tied it again before Francisco Alvarez called game with a two-run go-ahead blast. The Mets have to play postseason baseball now if they want to playing in October next week!

Jonah Tong makes his fifth major league start tonight. Over his first 16 2/3 innings, he has a 5.94 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 1.440 WHIP and a 69 ERA+. He’s coming off of his best start of his career holding the Padres to one unearned run, scattering four hits while striking out a career high eight batters. Tong has not been hit exceptionally hard this season, he’s just given up a lot of hits (.293 BA on the fastball, .271 xBA). Hitters have a .537 SLG on his fastball despite an average exit velocity of 89.7 mph. Hopefully he can build off of his last start tonight!

Matthew Boyd is having a career year for the Cubs. He earned his first All-Star nomination and is tied for the second highest bWAR (2.5) of his career. Over 174 1/3 innings he has a 3.20 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 1.107 WHIP and a 121 ERA+. He’s had a tough go of it lately with a 6.54 ERA, 5.36 FIP over his last 31 2/3 innings (six starts). In his last two starts he has allowed eight runs over eight innings from 12 hits, including two homers. Boyd had a solid start against the Mets back in May holding the Mets two runs over six innings. The Mets have the following career stats against him:

• Luisangel Acuña 1-2
• Pete Alonso 0-3, 3 K
• Francisco Lindor 13-36, 2 HR, 3 BB, 5 K
• Starling Marte 2-9, BB, 2 K
• Brandon Nimmo 1-2, K
• Juan Soto 1-7, HR, BB, 2 K
• Luis Torrens 1-2, 3B
• Mark Vientos 1-3, HR

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Power. The Mets are the best when they are swinging for the fences. Their top four hitters in the lineup each have 25 HR+ in Lindor, Soto, Alonso and Nimmo. Vientos has as much power as anyone when he’s in a groove. Baty has been power surprise this season with 17 bombs. Francisco Alvarez hit his 10th home run last night to put the Mets in lead. When the Mets play like themselves, there is a fear they can take over the game in any inning. We saw glimpses of that Tuesday night!
2. Season Stats. Francisco Lindor is now only one home run away from his second 30-30 season. Juan Soto is sitting at 124 career walks. His next walk will tie John Olerud for most walks by a Mets hitter in a single season (125 – 1999). Less likely, but not impossible, Soto is only four stolen bases away from 40 for the season. Pete Alonso has an outside chance at 40 double – 40 home run season, but he’ll really need to put in work over the last five games of the season. He needs two doubles and three homers.
3. Wild Card race. Get ready to root for the Pirates again tonight. They have a great pitching match up with the Reds with Paul Skenes (2.03 ERA) taking on Hunter Greene (2.74). That game will start about 90 minutes before the Mets game. About 90 minutes after the Mets game starts the Dodgers and Blake Snell (2.44 ERA) will take Ryne Nelson (3.44 ERA). The Reds and Diamondbacks are just one game behind the Mets.

Let’s Go Mets!

It’s crunch time borderline panic time for the Mets. After dropping two straight against the Nationals, the Reds have officially tied them for the last Wild Card spot. The Diamondbacks are only a game behind the Mets and Reds. It’s worth noting that the Reds currently have the tiebreaker with the Mets so the Mets no longer control their own destiny. Is this enough to put a fire under the Mets for the rest of the season? We are about to find out!

David Peterson has pitched 167 1/3 innings with a 3.98 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 1.339 WHIP and a 102 ERA+. He’s coming off of a brutal start against the Padres where he allowed six runs from six hits and three walks over five innings. In his last four starts he has allowed 21 runs over 17 1/3 innings from 28 hits while only striking out 14 batters (10.90 ERA, 4.59 FIP). The Cubs have the following career numbers against Peterson:

• Willi Castro 1-2, 2B
• Ian Happ 1-8, 5 K
• Nico Hoerner 2-3, BB, K
• Carson Kelly 1-2, 2B, 3 BB, K
• Carlos Santana 0-2, BB
• Seiya Suzuki 2-3, 3B, 2 BB
• Dansby Swanson 3-17, 2B, 2 BB
• Justin Turner 0-0, 2 BB

The Mets season depends on them beating a rookie who is off to a terrific start. Cade Horton has pitched in 22 games totaling 115 innings with a 2.66 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 1.096 WHIP and a 144 ERA+. In his last three starts he has a 1.10 ERA, 1.80 FIP over 16 1/3 innings while striking out 14 batters. His major league debut was against the Mets, who tagged him for three runs over four innings from three hits. The Mets have the following career stats against him:

• Luisangel Acuña 0-2, K
• Pete Alonso 1-2
• Francisco Alvarez 0-1
• Brett Baty 1-2, HR, K
• Francisco Lindor 1-2
• Brandon Nimmo 0-2, K
• Juan Soto 0-2, K
• Mark Vientos 1-2

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Pete Alonso’s last week? I don’t want to think about it, but this could be Pete Alonso’s last week as a Met. Alonso has a 145 OPS+ this season, the third highest in his career (147 in 2019, 146 in 2022). He’s three home runs away from 40 homers for the fourth time in his career and is two doubles away from 40 doubles (already has a career high). Does he have one more mega week in him? Are the Mets and Alonso really going to split?
2. Lindor 30-30 season? Lindor hit his 28th home run of the season on Sunday and is now only two homers away from his second 30-30 season. The Mets need a huge night from their captain to inject life back into the team. We’ve seen Lindor do this before on the road, he has the opportunity to open the game with a bang and set the tone for the night.
3. Wild Card race. The Mets season depends on how much the Pirates want to play spoiler. Johan Oviedo (3.52 ERA) takes on Brady Singer (3.86 ERA). The Diamondbacks will face starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani tonight. As of now, all eyes are on the Reds. The Mets just need to win and need the Reds to lose to take control of their destiny again.

Let’s Go Mets!