Last week the Marlins swept the Mets. Now the Mets have the chance to return the favor this afternoon!
All eyes are on Nolan McLean today. The Mets ace has had two rough starts in a row. In both starts he has moments where he has looked fantastic, he’s also had bumps that spiraled into massive innings for opposing batters. McLean still has tremendous stuff and the Mets need the version of McLean that can give the bullpen a day off. It’s a beautiful day in Queens for a McLean comeback game!
Nolan McLean has made 11 starts this season totaling 61 1/3 innings with a 4.40 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 1.092 WHIP and a 90 ERA+. In his last two starts he has allowed 16 runs, 13 earned over nine innings. His last start was emblematic of his recent struggles. He struck out the side in the first inning before things went off the rails in the next inning. Before those two starts McLean had a 2.92 ERA over nine starts. This will be McLean’s first start against the Marlins and no one on the Marlins roster have faced McLean in an official major league game.
Janson Junk has tossed 60 innings over 11 starts with a 4.80 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.300 WHIP and an 83 ERA+ this season. Junk had two rough starts in mid-May allowing a total of 15 runs from 18 hits over 10 2/3 innings. He rebounded in his last start allowing only one run, scattering eight hits over five innings on Monday. The Mets have the following career stats against Junk:
- Bo Bichette 3-4
- Vidal Bruján 0-0, BB
- MJ Melendez 0-3, 2 K
- Juan Soto 1-2
- Jared Young 0-1, K
Three Things To Watch For:
- Under the hood. McLean still has a 3.16 xERA (75th percentile) and .216 xBA (77th percentile). His K% is still top tier (29.6%, 92nd percentile). McLean has been hit hard more recently which has seen him drop to around the middle of the league in Barrel% and Hard-hit% but he’s still in 81st percentile for average exit velocity. Pay attention to his pitch selection today. He has used his sinker 36% of the time and his four seamer 18%. His four seamer now has an xBA of .333, quite a bit above the it’s real .242 BA.
- David Peterson. The Mets announced before Friday’s game that David Peterson was moving back to the bullpen with today being his first available day. Peterson had two successful starts in mid-May allowing three runs off 10 hits over nine innings. His last start was pretty bad allowing six runs off 11 hits and three walks over five innings against the Reds. In 33 1/3 innings as a starter he has a 7.56 ERA. In 20 innings as a reliever he has a 2.25 ERA.
- OPS Watch. Yesterday we noted that Bo Bichette was getting close again to a .600 OPS with a .592 OPS. He went 0-for-3 with a walk, dropping his OPS down to .588. Semien has also been hitting around the .600 OPS line. Yesterday he went 2-for-4 with a double, raising his OPS to .582. With a good week both hitters could finally cross that .600 line!
Let’s Go Mets!
