Every spring at 213 we gather a whole bunch of projections for players and average them together to see what a conglomerate of baseball sources think a given player will perform over the year. It’s wholly unscientific – averaging averages and not weighting them for previous accuracy or amount of playing time they feel a player will see.
Last year we opened up our Luis Guillorme projection article talking about how incomprehensible his playing time was. Luis, a defensive star, saw his time taken away by Jose Reyes, an owner favorite. We also talked about how difficult it was going to be for him to get playing time in 2020 due to the amount of players the Mets had in the infield (Todd Frazier, Robinson Cano, Amed Rosario, Dominic Smith, Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Jed Lowrie) and even with injuries to pretty much everyone who played third, Luis still saw not enough playing time in 2020. What follows are his projections and his actual numbers:
2019 Stats: 70 PA, 61 AB, 1 HR, .246/.324/.361, .684 OPS, 0.1 WAR, 85 DRC+
Baseball Prospectus was on it this year for Slugging, Batting Average, OPS (although Baseball Reference was close to that as well) and DRC+. Ultimately Luis played pretty much to his projections and the computer programs handled him appropriately, except for playing time. I imagine that in 2020 we’ll see a similar situation where the slash line stats for Luis look correct to what he actually does but the programs will struggle to accurately predict his playing time. That’s probably because Mets pundits will also struggle with predicting how much time he has with the big league club.
Ultimately at 213 we want to see more of Luis in 2020, we are hoping this is the year where he can establish more of a bench role with the big league club.
