Were 2018 Stat Projections Correct? – Juan Lagares

Every spring I collect several projections sources and average them together to do a meta-projection. Last year I pulled projections from Baseball Prospectus, ZiPS, Steamer, ESPN, and Baseball Reference.

Going into last season, the Mets did not have a true center fielder that could play both serviceable defense and handle a bat. The hope was that Juan Lagares, going through a new off-season hitting routine, would be able to step into that spot. Juan Lagares also struggles to stay healthy and that was on full-display last year as Lagares landed on the DL for the rest of the season around May.

2018 Average Projection: 318 PA, 280 AB, .252/.294/.363
2018 Actual: 64 PA, 59 AB, .339/.375/.390
(Individual source projections here)

So Lagares had a tremendous 64 plate appearance stretch last year that makes him look really good against projections. Right now, Lagares playing time is up in the air. Until Cespedes comes back, it looks like he will split time with Broxton as they both spend time with Nimmo, Conforto and McNeil. It is also not entirely certain that Lagares doesn’t get traded because the Mets have Broxton now. Who knows.

Juan has shown flashes of brilliance in spurts of playing time between injuries. Is this season that he’s finally healthy?

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