2018 Stats Projections – Noah Syndergaard

The Mets season rests, in large part, on Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. Between injuries and flailing, the Mets Big 5 rotation of aces looks more like Syndergaard and deGrom as a fantastic 1 and 2 followed by hopeful renaissance.

Syndergaard got off to a great start last year and then at the end of April, in the midst of his worst start of the season (probably due to ignoring an injury, we can play the blame game on that later), Noah tore his lat and looked like he was done for the season. He came back and pitched 3.0 innings in the last week of the season to get some positive vibes going into the off-season. Here’s what the computers think of him:

Noah Syndergaard
Source Innings ERA FIP WHIP K BB K/BB K/9
Baseball Prospectus 163 2.89 1.18 187 10.32515
ZiPS 141.7 2.86 2.57 169 32 5.28125 10.73394
Steamer 182 3.1 2.85 1.09 220 46 4.782609 10.87912
ESPN 158 2.85 1.08 186 33 5.636364 10.59494
MLB.com 168 2.79 1.1 183 36 5.083333 9.803571
Baseball Reference 93 3.29 1.161 104 24 4.333333 10.06452
Average: 150.95 2.963333 2.71 1.1222 174.8333 34.2 5.023378 10.40021
2017 Stats: 30.1 2.97 1.31 1.055 34 3 11.33333 10.16611

In a press conference yesterday, Noah said he wanted to reach the 200 innings mark this year. Every projection disagrees with him. For the most part, the projections see him being a dominating pitcher with a strong K/BB ratio and a strong WHIP.

If Noah posts a 2.96 ERA, 2.71 FIP and 1.12 WHIP at the end of the season, and if he can break the projections for innings pitched, the Mets will have fun every five days.

Today Noah looks to take the first step. The only guarantee: Noah’s start will be over analyzed during the long off day that follows tomorrow.

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