2018 Stats Projection – Dom Smith

From the jump, I need to be honest. I am biased towards wanting Dom Smith to be the first basemen of the Mets. It’s a combination of following him since he’s been drafted, loving younger players, and his personality. I want the answer at first base to be Dom Smith. Right now, it seems like the Mets have done a lot this off-season to make the Mets answer to not be Dom Smith (getting Gonzalez, suggesting that Bruce can play first, almost making fun of Smith at pressers).

Let’s take a look at his stats:

Dominic Smith
Baseball Prospectus 536 100.288 61 18 0.258 0.314 0.423
ZiPS 652 164 76 20 0.272 0.324 0.43
Steamer 234 214 54 24 8 0.251 0.306 0.413
ESPN 240 58.08 26 7 0.242 0.292 0.379
MLB.com 220 53.9 27 9 0.245 0.305 0.432
Baseball Reference 292 262 62 33 13 0.237 0.306 0.439
Average: 428.5 234 82.04467 41.16667 12.5 0.250833 0.307833 0.419333
2017 Stats: 183 167 33 17 9 0.198 0.262 0.393

Dom Smith surprised us in two ways in 2017. His defense left a lot to be desired at the major league level, the first time that has been true for Dom Smith. The ball exploded off bat when he made contact, knocking in 9 homers in limited at bats. Something else he rarely did at any other level.

I deeply believe that Dom Smith gets a lot better this year with playing time. He has had made a mistake this spring (showing up late) and was unlucky and got injured but I still feel he is the answer at first base. He dropped a lot of weight over the season and is hopefully motivated with Peter Alonso knocking at the door behind him.

Then again, as stated earlier, I don’t know how much of what I’m saying is due to a Dom Smith bias. I want him to be the answer and I don’t know if that is clouding my judgment? I guess we’ll find out this season.

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