We wrapped up all the pitcher projections and now we can move on to the hitters!
There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Travis d’Arnaud:
There are two players who could be the difference between the Mets competing for a Wild Card and dominating the division: Lucas Duda and Travis d’Arnaud.
Travis d’Arnaud is no longer a prospect. He’s shown flashes of brilliance and has spent a lot of time on the DL at different points in his career. The projections aren’t great as they see him playing about 55-65% of the time hitting on par with his numbers from last year that were super limited.
What the projections don’t take into account: he took the wraparound out of his swing, which early spring has been a positive sign.
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)
Article Written on 3/14, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data